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Interventions with Positive Side-Effects: COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Infectious Diseases in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiser, Micha

    (Copenhagen Business School)

  • Otterbach, Steffen

    (University of Hohenheim)

  • Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

    (University of Hohenheim)

  • Bloom, David E.

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

To assess the efficacy of Covid-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on infectious disease containment in Europe, we first use weekly 2015-20 data on the spread of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to compare the 2019-20 season of these diseases with the previous five. Although the magnitude of results differs between countries, we document much stronger end-of-season declines in infections in the most recent outbreak than in the earlier ones, implying that they may be driven by NPIs implemented in 2020 to combat Covid-19. To test this conjecture, we use detailed country-specific weekly information on Covid-19 NPIs to estimate several panel models that relate NPI implementation to disease incidence across countries. Not only do certain measures significantly reduce the spread of Covid-19, they also curtail the spread of influenza and RSV. Nonetheless, although we identify workplace closures as a particularly effective measure, we find no evidence for the efficacy of other NPIs such as travel restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiser, Micha & Otterbach, Steffen & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso & Bloom, David E., 2020. "Interventions with Positive Side-Effects: COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Infectious Diseases in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 13927, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13927
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    1. repec:aei:rpaper:1008561701 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Thunström, Linda & Newbold, Stephen C. & Finnoff, David & Ashworth, Madison & Shogren, Jason F., 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 179-195, July.
    3. J. O. Lloyd-Smith & S. J. Schreiber & P. E. Kopp & W. M. Getz, 2005. "Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 355-359, November.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Effect on Health

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-pharmaceutical interventions; infectious diseases; Europe; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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