IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sjecst/v157y2021i1d10.1186_s41937-021-00072-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolò Gatti

    (Università della Svizzera Italiana)

  • Beatrice Retali

    (Università della Svizzera Italiana)

Abstract

The implementation of a lockdown to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a strong economic and political debate in several countries. This makes it crucial to shed light on the actual benefits of such kind of policy. To this purpose, we focus on the Swiss lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 infections and estimate the number of potentially saved lives. To predict the number of deaths in the absence of any restrictive measure, we develop a novel age-structured SIRDC model which accounts for age-specific endogenous behavioral responses and for seasonal patterns in the spread of the virus. Including the additional fatalities which would have materialized because of the shortage of healthcare resources, our estimates suggest that the lockdown prevented more than 11,200 deaths between March and the beginning of September 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolò Gatti & Beatrice Retali, 2021. "Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:157:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s41937-021-00072-2
    DOI: 10.1186/s41937-021-00072-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s41937-021-00072-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s41937-021-00072-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph E. Aldy & W. Kip Viscusi, 2008. "Adjusting the Value of a Statistical Life for Age and Cohort Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 573-581, August.
    2. Andrew Atkeson, 2021. "A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom," Staff Report 619, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Charles I., 2022. "Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Fang, Hanming & Wang, Long & Yang, Yang, 2020. "Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    6. Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "The Value of Health and Longevity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 871-904, October.
    7. Thunström, Linda & Newbold, Stephen C. & Finnoff, David & Ashworth, Madison & Shogren, Jason F., 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 179-195, July.
    8. Mark C Long & Eleanor Krause, 2017. "Altruism by age and social proximity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-24, August.
    9. Toxvaerd, F.M.O, 2020. "Equilibrium Social Distancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feindouno, Sosso & Arcand, Jean-Louis & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2024. "COVID-19's death transfer to Sub-Saharan Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    2. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2023. "Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Mingolla, Stefano & Lu, Zhongming, 2022. "Impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of stay-at-home requirement under the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from the Italian Case," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(6), pages 504-511.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolò Gatti & Beatrice Retali, 2021. "Fighting the spread of Covid-19 : was the Swiss lockdown worth it?," IdEP Economic Papers 2101, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    2. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    3. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2023. "Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 474-508, June.
    4. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "COVID-19 Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing," Globalization Institute Working Papers 407, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. James K. Hammitt, 2020. "Valuing mortality risk in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 129-154, October.
    6. Andrew G. Atkeson & Karen A. Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2024. "Four Stylized Facts About Covid‐19," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 3-42, February.
    7. Patrick Carlin & Brian E. Dixon & Kosali I. Simon & Ryan Sullivan & Coady Wing, 2022. "How Undervalued is the Covid-19 Vaccine? Evidence from Discrete Choice Experiments and VSL Benchmarks," NBER Working Papers 30118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie, 2020. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    9. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Peter T. Leeson & Louis Rouanet, 2021. "Externality and COVID‐19," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(4), pages 1107-1118, April.
    11. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    12. Yasushi Iwamoto, 2021. "Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 537-579, October.
    13. Vandenbroucke Guillaume, 2022. "The Mechanics of Individually- and Socially-Optimal Decisions during an Epidemic," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 131-158, January.
    14. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Shomak Chakrabarti & Ilia Krasikov & Rohit Lamba, 2022. "Behavioral epidemiology: An economic model to evaluate optimal policy in the midst of a pandemic," Papers 2202.04174, arXiv.org.
    16. Luciana Echazu & Diego C. Nocetti, 2020. "Willingness to pay for morbidity and mortality risk reductions during an epidemic. Theory and preliminary evidence from COVID-19," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 45(2), pages 114-133, September.
    17. Ulrich Glogowsky & Emanuel Hansen & Simeon Schächtele, 2021. "How effective are social distancing policies? Evidence on the fight against COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-12, September.
    18. Stephen C. Newbold & David Finnoff & Linda Thunström & Madison Ashworth & Jason F. Shogren, 2020. "Effects of Physical Distancing to Control COVID-19 on Public Health, the Economy, and the Environment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 705-729, August.
    19. Alberto Bisin & Andrea Moro, 2020. "Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial-SIR Model with Behavioral Responses," NBER Working Papers 27590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Getachew, Yoseph, 2020. "Optimal social distancing in SIR based macroeconomic models," MERIT Working Papers 2020-034, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Lockdown; Saved lives; SIRDC model; SIR model; Behavioral responses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:157:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s41937-021-00072-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.