IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp13484.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Universal Credit and Crime

Author

Listed:
  • d'Este, Rocco

    (University of Sussex)

  • Harvey, Alex

    (University of Sussex)

Abstract

We evaluate the criminogenic effects of Universal Credit (UC), a monumental welfare reform designed to radically change the social security payment system in the United Kingdom. We exploit the UC rollout across constituencies using monthly data from 2010 to 2019 for England and Wales. We find UC has caused around 45,000 burglaries, with criminogenic effects lasting until the end of the sample period and expected to grow considerably by the time UC is fully rolled out when 6.5 million more individuals will use the system. The analysis suggests the worsening of benefit recipients' financial conditions as the key mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • d'Este, Rocco & Harvey, Alex, 2020. "Universal Credit and Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 13484, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13484
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp13484.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stephen Machin & Olivier Marie, 2006. "Crime and benefit sanctions," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 5(2), pages 149-165, August.
    3. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
    4. Eric D. Gould & Bruce A. Weinberg & David B. Mustard, 2002. "Crime Rates And Local Labor Market Opportunities In The United States: 1979-1997," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 45-61, February.
    5. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    6. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    7. Jérôme Adda & Brendon McConnell & Imran Rasul, 2014. "Crime and the Depenalization of Cannabis Possession: Evidence from a Policing Experiment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(5), pages 1130-1202.
    8. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin, 2015. "Crime and Economic Incentives," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 389-408, August.
    9. Evelina Gavrilova & Takuma Kamada & Floris Zoutman, 2019. "Is Legal Pot Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on US Crime," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 375-407.
    10. Grogger, Jeff, 1998. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-791, October.
    11. Brian Bell & Anna Bindler & Stephen Machin, 2018. "Crime Scars: Recessions and the Making of Career Criminals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 392-404, July.
    12. Bindler, Anna, 2016. "Still unemployed, what next? Crime and unemployment duration," Working Papers in Economics 660, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    13. Kevin T. Schnepel, 2018. "Good Jobs and Recidivism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 447-469, February.
    14. C. Fritz Foley, 2011. "Welfare Payments and Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 97-112, February.
    15. Adda, Jérôme & McConnell, Brendon & Rasul, Imran, 2014. "Crime and the depenalization of cannabis possession: evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2014/05, European University Institute.
    16. Kevin T. Schnepel, 2018. "Good Jobs and Recidivism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 447-469.
    17. Jillian B. Carr & Analisa Packham, 2019. "SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 310-325, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brewer, Mike & Dang, Thang & Tominey, Emma, 2022. "Universal Credit: Welfare Reform and Mental Health," IZA Discussion Papers 15178, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Bray, Kerry & Braakmann, Nils & Wildman, John, 2024. "Austerity, welfare cuts and hate crime: Evidence from the UK's age of austerity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Otto Lenhart, 2021. "Earned income tax credit and crime," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 589-607, July.
    2. Eduardo Ferraz & Rodrigo Soares & Juan Vargas, 2022. "Unbundling the relationship between economic shocks and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 8, pages 184-204, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Deiana, C, 2016. "Local Labour Market Effects of Unemployment on Crime Induced by Trade Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 16529, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo & Nicolas Torres, 2023. "Formal Employment and Organised Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2427-2448.
    5. Patrick Bennett & Amine Ouazad, 2020. "Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence from Danish Microdata and Reforms [The Link between Human Capital, Mass Layoffs, and Firm Deaths]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2182-2220.
    6. Bindler, Anna, 2016. "Still unemployed, what next? Crime and unemployment duration," Working Papers in Economics 660, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Siwach, Garima, 2018. "Unemployment shocks for individuals on the margin: Exploring recidivism effects," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 231-244.
    8. Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Julien Pouget, 2009. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 909-938, September.
    9. Povilas Lastauskas & Eirini Tatsi, 2017. "Spatial Nexus in Crime and Unemployement in Times of Crisis," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 39, Bank of Lithuania.
    10. Blakeslee, David & Chaurey, Ritam & Fishman, Ram & Malghan, Deepak & Malik, Samreen, 2021. "In the heat of the moment: Economic and non-economic drivers of the weather-crime relationship," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 832-856.
    11. Darolia, Rajeev & Mueser, Peter & Cronin, Jacob, 2021. "Labor market returns to a prison GED," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Mirko Draca & Theodore Koutmeridis & Stephen Machin, 2019. "The Changing Returns to Crime: Do Criminals Respond to Prices?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(3), pages 1228-1257.
    13. Pallab K. Ghosh & Gary A. Hoover & Zexuan Liu, 2020. "Do State Minimum Wages Affect the Incarceration Rate?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 845-872, January.
    14. Bray, Kerry & Braakmann, Nils & Wildman, John, 2024. "Austerity, welfare cuts and hate crime: Evidence from the UK's age of austerity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Corvalan, Alejandro & Pazzona, Matteo, 2019. "Persistent commodity shocks and transitory crime effects," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 110-127.
    16. Rocco d'Este, 2021. "Breaking the Crystal Methamphetamine Economy: Illegal Drugs, Supply‐side Interventions and Crime Responses," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 208-233, January.
    17. Long, Iain W. & Polito, Vito, 2014. "Unemployment, Crime and Social Insurance," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    18. Fone, Zachary S. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Cesur, Resul, 2023. "The unintended effects of minimum wage increases on crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    19. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2014. "Education and Crime over the Life Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1484-1517.
    20. Altindag, Duha T., 2012. "Crime and unemployment: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-157.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    universal credit; benefits; welfare system; crime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.