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Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2016

Author

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  • Clemens, Jeffrey

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Strain, Michael R.

    (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research)

Abstract

This paper presents results from the first year of a multi-year, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent state-level minimum wage changes. Through 2015 and 2016, we estimate that relatively large statutory minimum wage increases have reduced employment among low-skilled population groups by just under 1.5 percentage points. Our estimates of the effects of smaller minimum wage increases are more variable and include both moderately large positive values and modest negative values. Our estimates of the effects of increases linked to inflation-indexing provisions are also quite variable, taking a small positive value on average across specifications. Results including 2016 diverge nontrivially when we compare estimates using the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimates using the Current Population Survey (CPS), with estimates tending to be more negative in the ACS. Analysis of future data will be needed to determine whether this difference across surveys is most appropriately attributed to sampling variations or to some other cause.

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2018. "Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2016," IZA Discussion Papers 11427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11427
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph J. Sabia & Richard V. Burkhauser & Benjamin Hansen, 2012. "Are the Effects of Minimum Wage Increases Always Small? New Evidence from a Case Study of New York State," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(2), pages 350-376, April.
    2. Jonathan Meer & Jeremy West, 2016. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(2), pages 500-522.
    3. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2017. "Estimating the Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Early Evidence, an Interpretative Framework, and a Pre-Commitment to Future Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kosali Simon & Aparna Soni & John Cawley, 2017. "The Impact of Health Insurance on Preventive Care and Health Behaviors: Evidence from the First Two Years of the ACA Medicaid Expansions," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 390-417, March.
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    6. Charles Courtemanche & James Marton & Benjamin Ukert & Aaron Yelowitz & Daniela Zapata, 2017. "Early Impacts of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Coverage in Medicaid Expansion and Non‐Expansion States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 178-210, January.
    7. C. Kirabo Jackson & Rucker C. Johnson & Claudia Persico, 2016. "The Effects of School Spending on Educational and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from School Finance Reforms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 157-218.
    8. Hoffman Saul D., 2014. "Employment Effects of the 2009 Minimum Wage Increase: New Evidence from State-Based Comparisons of Workers by Skill Level," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 695-721, July.
    9. Kosali Simon & Aparna Soni & John Cawley, 2016. "The Impact of Health Insurance on Preventive Care and Health Behaviors: Evidence from the 2014 ACA Medicaid Expansions," NBER Working Papers 22265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Isaac Sorkin, 2015. "Are There Long-Run Effects of the Minimum Wage?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 306-333, April.
    11. French, Eric Baird & Aaronson, Daniel & Sorkin, Isaac, 2016. "Industry Dynamics and the Minimum Wage: A Putty-Clay Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael R. Strain, 2021. "An Argument Against The $15 Minimum Wage," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 1289-1297, September.
    2. Michael R. Strain & Jeffrey Clemens & Duncan Hobbs, 2018. "A database on the passage and enactment of recent state minimum wage increases," AEI Economics Working Papers 991185, American Enterprise Institute.
    3. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2022. "Understanding “Wage Theft”: Evasion and avoidance responses to minimum wage increases," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2020. "Public Policy and Participation in Political Interest Groups: An Analysis of Minimum Wages, Labor Unions, and Effective Advocacy," NBER Working Papers 27902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2019. "Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2017," IZA Discussion Papers 12388, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Jeffrey Clemens & Lisa B. Kahn & Jonathan Meer, 2021. "Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S1), pages 107-149.
    7. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2021. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-analysis Plan," IZA Discussion Papers 14747, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Charles C. Brown & Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2019. "Wages and Hours Laws: What Do We Know? What Can Be Done?," NBER Working Papers 25942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Meer, Jonathan, 2018. "Recent Research on the Minimum Wage: Implications for Missouri," MPRA Paper 93926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jonathan Meer & Hedieh Tajali, 2023. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Nonprofit Sector," NBER Working Papers 31281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:aei:rpaper:1008580847 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    minimum wages; employment; pre-commitment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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