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Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2017

Author

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  • Clemens, Jeffrey

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Strain, Michael R.

    (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research)

Abstract

This paper presents results from the third year of a multi-year, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent minimum wage changes. Using ACS and CPS data through 2017, we find that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced employment among low-skilled individuals by just over 2 percentage points. The effects of smaller increases are more variable and estimates for inflation-indexed increases tend toward moderately positive values. The effects of smaller increases are relatively more positive when we analyze the CPS. The most recently enacted minimum wage changes tend to be positively correlated with employment among low-skilled individuals, while relatively early and large increases are strongly negatively correlated with employment. Analysis of future data will be needed to determine whether this apparent difference between short- and medium-run effects is systematic.

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2019. "Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2017," IZA Discussion Papers 12388, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12388
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2018. "Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2016," IZA Discussion Papers 11427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Hoffman Saul D., 2014. "Employment Effects of the 2009 Minimum Wage Increase: New Evidence from State-Based Comparisons of Workers by Skill Level," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 695-721, July.
    3. Daniel Aaronson & Eric French & Isaac Sorkin & Ted To, 2018. "Industry Dynamics And The Minimum Wage: A Putty†Clay Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 51-84, February.
    4. Clemens, Jeffrey & Wither, Michael, 2019. "The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 53-67.
    5. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2017. "Estimating the Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Early Evidence, an Interpretative Framework, and a Pre-Commitment to Future Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2018. "The Short‐Run Employment Effects Of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence From The American Community Survey," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 711-722, October.
    7. Michael R. Strain & Jeffrey Clemens & Duncan Hobbs, 2018. "A database on the passage and enactment of recent state minimum wage increases," AEI Economics Working Papers 991185, American Enterprise Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Neumark, David & Yen, Maysen, 2020. "Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Policies in California and Nationwide: Initial Results from a Pre-specified Analysis Plan," IZA Discussion Papers 13062, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2021. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-analysis Plan," IZA Discussion Papers 14747, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Meer, Jonathan, 2018. "Recent Research on the Minimum Wage: Implications for Missouri," MPRA Paper 93926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. David Neumark & Maysen Yen, 2022. "Effects of recent minimum wage policies in California and nationwide: Results from a pre‐specified analysis plan," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 228-255, April.
    5. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2023. "The employment effects of collective wage bargaining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    6. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2020. "Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2018," IZA Discussion Papers 13286, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    minimum wages; employment; pre-commitment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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