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A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

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  • Bellemare, Charles

    (Université Laval)

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural dynamic life-cycle model of outmigration where, in each period, immigrants choose whether to work in the host country, not to work but remain in the host country, or outmigrate. The model incorporates several features of existing life-cycle theories of outmigration but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty in about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience. We overcome the problem of not directly observing outmigration movements by using panel attrition as a proxy variable and use a simple method to correct for the fact that part of the attrition is not a consequence of outmigration. Estimates are used to predict changes in life-cycle patterns of outmigration behavior. Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials. Estimated assimilation rates are found to be robust to selection effects. Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations are very sensitive to changes in their economic environment and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellemare, Charles, 2004. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1012, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1012
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants Earnings Profiles," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1402, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    2. Murat G. Kirdar, 2012. "Estimating The Impact Of Immigrants On The Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration Is An Endogenous Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 453-486, May.
    3. Alpaslan Akay & Olivier Bargain & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2017. "Home Sweet Home?: Macroeconomic Conditions in Home Countries and the Well-Being of Migrants," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(2), pages 351-373.
    4. Ciro Avitabile & Irma Clots-Figueras & Paolo Masella, 2013. "The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Parental Integration Outcomes," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 777-810.
    5. Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2017. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 610-621.
    6. Rémi Bazillier & Francesco Magris & Daniel Mirza, 2017. "Out-migration and economic cycles," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 39-69, February.
    7. Jain, Apoorva & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2017. "Limits to Wage Growth: Understanding the Wage Divergence between Immigrants and Natives," IZA Discussion Papers 10891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Merton, Robert C, 1978. "On the Cost of Deposit Insurance When There Are Surveillance Costs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 439-452, July.
    9. Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2023. "Borrowing Constraints and the Dynamics of Return and Repeat Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 205-243.
    10. Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Masood Gheasi, 2018. "Fortunado’s, Desperado’s and Clandestino’s in Diaspora Labour Markets: The Circular ‘Homo Mobilis’," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roger R. Stough & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien (ed.), Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets, chapter 0, pages 31-50, Springer.
    11. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    12. Christian Dustmann & Yannis Kastis & Ian Preston, 2023. "Inequality and Immigration," CESifo Working Paper Series 10486, CESifo.
    13. Martin Kahanec & Michael Shields, 2013. "The working hours of immigrants in Germany: temporary versus permanent," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Elena Samarsky, 2020. "Who is Thinking of Leaving Germany? The Role of Postmaterialism, Risk Attitudes, and Life-Satisfaction on Emigration Intentions of German Nationals," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1066, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    15. Rémi BAZILLIER & Francesco MAGRIS & Daniel MIRZA, 2016. "Out-Migration and Economic Cycles," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2314, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    16. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    17. Laurent Bossavie & Çağlar Özden, 2023. "Impacts of Temporary Migration on Development in Origin Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(2), pages 249-294.
    18. Luigi Capoani & Cristoforo Imbesi & Francesca Rinaldi & Claudio Annibali, 2024. "Return migration, self-selection and labour market outcomes," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2024(2), pages 191-228.
    19. Tommaso Frattini, 2017. "Integration of immigrants in host countries - what we know and what works," Development Working Papers 427, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    20. Jain, Apoorva & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2017. "A Joint Hazard-Longitudinal Model of the Timing of Migration, Immigrant Quality, and Labor Market Assimilation," IZA Discussion Papers 10887, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Mrittika Shamsuddin & Marina-Selini Katsaiti, 2020. "Migration and Happiness: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 21(8), pages 2931-2955, December.
    22. Zakharenko, Roman, 2008. "Return Migration: an Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13755, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
    23. Majlinda Joxhe, 2012. "Selection in Return Migration: the Role of the Ethnic Networks," ERSA conference papers ersa12p463, European Regional Science Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural dynamic programming models; outmigration;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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