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Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany

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  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the outmigration behaviour of foreign-born immigrants. Our analysis is based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel covering the period 1984 to 2010. A unique feature of our paper is the use of new data from panel-drop out studies, which allows us to identify outmigration. As statistical technique, we employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. For Non-Turkish immigrants we find a u-shaped pattern between human capital endowment and outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by a positive self-selection with respect to skill intensifying the initial negative selection process. In addition to this, family characteristics have strong effects on emigration decisions. Finally, our results highlight substantial variation in outmigration behaviour during the life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2012. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," HWWI Research Papers 128, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:128
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    Cited by:

    1. Amelie F. Constant, 2019. "Return, Circular, and Onward Migration Decisions in a Knowledge Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 7913, CESifo.
    2. Dean Fantazzini & Julia Pushchelenko & Alexey Mironenkov & Alexey Kurbatskii, 2021. "Forecasting Internal Migration in Russia Using Google Trends: Evidence from Moscow and Saint Petersburg," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30, October.
    3. Constant, Amelie F., 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 446, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Eric Schuss, 2020. "Substantial Labor Market Effects of the Residency Status," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 993-1026, December.
    5. Berbée, Paul & Stuhler, Jan, 2023. "The Integration of Migrants in the German Labor Market: Evidence over 50 Years," CEPR Discussion Papers 18452, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Giulia Bettin & Eralba Cela & Tineke Fokkema, 2018. "Return intentions over the life course: Evidence on the effects of life events from a longitudinal sample of first- and second-generation Turkish migrants in Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(38), pages 1009-1038.
    7. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    8. Steinhardt, Max F., 2018. "The Impact of Xenophobic Violence on the Integration of Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11781, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Elena Samarsky, 2020. "Who is Thinking of Leaving Germany? The Role of Postmaterialism, Risk Attitudes, and Life-Satisfaction on Emigration Intentions of German Nationals," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1066, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. Claudia Diehl & Elisabeth Liebau, 2014. "Turning Back to Turkey - or Turning the Back to Germany?: Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 637, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    13. Akay, Alpaslan & Brausmann, Alexandra & Djajić, Slobodan & Kırdar, Murat G., 2021. "Purchasing-power-parity and the saving behavior of temporary migrants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2014. "Do better pre-migration skills accelerate immigrants' wage assimilation?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 212-222.
    15. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Hillmann, Katja, 2012. "Impact of Benefit Sanctions on Unemployment Outflow - Evidence from German Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2013. "Does Better Pre-Migration Performance Accelerate Immigrants' Wage Assimilation?," IZA Discussion Papers 7240, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Bräuninger, Michael, 2014. "Tax sovereignty and feasibility of international regulations for tobacco tax policies," HWWI Research Papers 152, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    18. Juan Galeano & Aurélie Pont & Philippe Wanner, 2022. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Naturalization and International Migration in Switzerland, 2011–2017," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 889-910, June.
    19. Diehl, Claudia & Liebau, Elisabeth, 2015. "Turning back to Turkey - or Turning the Back on Germany? Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 22-41.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emigration; Self-selection; German Socio-Economic Panel; Generalized Additive Mixed Models; Penalized Splines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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