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Das ExpertInnen-Delphi: methodische Grundlagen und Anwendungsfeld ‘Technology Foresight‘ (The Expert Delphi: Methodology and Application in 'Technology Foresight')

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  • Georg Aichholzer

Abstract

The Delphi method is basically a structured group process through which experts assess issues on which knowledge is uncertain and imperfect by nature. Delphi procedures are applied among others in the worldwide expanding field of Technology Foresight. The paper explains basic elements of the method and illustrates its use within the Austrian Technology Delphi. The innovative character of this application case is constituted by the following key features: a Foresight approach tailored to country-specific needs (selective, demand-, problem- and implementation -oriented); modification of the classical Delphi towards a ?Decision Delphi?; broader definition of relevant experts; and use of the ?Total Design Method? in the postal survey. The contribution elaborates on the translation of these design elements as well as on effects on response rates and also looks at wider impacts of the Delphi process. -- Die Delphi-Methode ist im Kern ein relativ stark strukturierter Gruppenkommunikationsprozess, in dem Fachleute Sachverhalte beurteilen, über die naturgemäß unsicheres und unvollständiges Wissen vorhanden ist. Das ExpertInnen-Delphi hat unter anderem einen festen Platz im Rahmen von weltweit an Bedeutung gewinnenden Technology Foresight Projekten. Der Beitrag legt methodische Grundlagen dar und illustriert seine Anwendung am Beispiel des österreichischen Technologie-Delphi. Zum innovativen Ansatz des Projekts und des Einsatzes der Delphi-Methode gehören folgende Hauptelemente: der auf die spezifische Situation Österreichs zugeschnittene Vorausschau-Ansatz (selektiv, nachfrage-, problem- und umsetzungsorientiert); die Modifikation des klassischen Delphi zu einem 'Entscheidungs-Delphi'; eine breitere Definition der ExpertInnenbasis; sowie die Orientierung an der 'Total Design Methode' für postalische Umfragen. Die Umsetzung dieser Designelemente und ihr Beitrag zum erzielten Response werden diskutiert, anhand einiger Gütekriterien belegt und mit einem Blick auf den Verwertungszusammenhang des Technologie-Delphi abgerundet.

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  • Georg Aichholzer, 2002. "Das ExpertInnen-Delphi: methodische Grundlagen und Anwendungsfeld ‘Technology Foresight‘ (The Expert Delphi: Methodology and Application in 'Technology Foresight')," ITA manu:scripts 02_01, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ita:itaman:02_01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stewart, Thomas R., 1999. "Commentary on "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and analysis" by Rowe and Wright," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 380-381, October.
    2. C. West Churchman, 1963. "The X of X," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 351-357, April.
    3. Ayton, Peter & Ferrell, William R. & Stewart, Thomas R., 1999. "Commentaries on "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis" by Rowe and Wright," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 377-379, October.
    4. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    5. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Diekmann, 2002. "Diagnose von Fehlerquellen und methodische Qualität in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung [Sources of Bias and Quality of Data in Social Science Research]," ITA manu:scripts 02_04, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    2. Jörg Flecker & Sabine Kirschenhofer, 2003. "IT verleiht Flügel? Aktuelle Tendenzen der räumlichen Verlagerung von Arbeit [Do information technologies (IT) give wings? Tendencies of the spatial relocation of work]," ITA manu:scripts 03_01, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    3. Gunther Tichy, 2002. "Over-optimism Among Experts in Assessment and Foresight," ITA manu:scripts 02_05, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    4. Aschemann-Witzel, Jessica & Perez-Cueto, Federico J.A. & Niedzwiedzka, Barbara & Verbeke, Wim & Bech-Larsen, Tino, 2012. "Transferability of private food marketing success factors to public food and health policy: An expert Delphi survey," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 650-660.
    5. Helge Torgersen & Jürgen Hampel, 2001. "The Gate-Resonance Model - The interface of policy, media and the public in technology conflicts," ITA manu:scripts 01_03, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    6. Gunther Tichy, 2002. "Informationsgesellschaft und flexiblere Arbeitsmärkte [Information society and flexible labour markets]," ITA manu:scripts 02_03, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    7. Gunther Tichy & Walter Peissl, 2001. "Beeinträchtigung der Privatsphäre in der Informationsgesellschaft [Detraction of Privacy in the Information Society]," ITA manu:scripts 01_01, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    8. Hilmar Westholm, 2002. "Mit eDemocracy zu deliberativer Politik? Zur Praxis und Anschlussfähigkeit eines neuen Mediums ]Is eDemocracy leading to a deliberative policy? On practice and connectivity of a new medium]," ITA manu:scripts 02_06, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    9. Graber, Petra, 2006. "Ein Subsidiaritätstest – Die Errichtung gentechnikfreier Regionen in Österreich zwischen Anspruch und Wirklichkeit," ITA manu:scripts 05_02, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    10. Michael Nentwich, 2003. "Neue Kommunikationstechnologien und Wissenschaft – Veränderungspotentiale und Handlungsoptionen auf dem Weg zur Cyber-Wissenschaft [New communication technologies and science and research -- potential," ITA manu:scripts 03_03, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    11. Walter Peissl, 2002. "Surveillance and security - a dodgy relationship," ITA manu:scripts 02_02, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Delphi-Methode; Total-Design-Methode; Technology Foresight; Technologie-vorausschau; Zukunftsforschung;
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