Over-optimism Among Experts in Assessment and Foresight
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References listed on IDEAS
- C. West Churchman, 1963. "The X of X," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 351-357, April.
- Georg Aichholzer, 2002. "Das ExpertInnen-Delphi: methodische Grundlagen und Anwendungsfeld ‘Technology Foresight‘ (The Expert Delphi: Methodology and Application in 'Technology Foresight')," ITA manu:scripts 02_01, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
- JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations," General Economics and Teaching 0412025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Georg Aichholzer, 2001. "Delphi Austria - An Example of Tailoring Foresight to the Needs of a Small Country," ITA manu:scripts 01_02, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
- Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
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- Floeting, Holger, 2006. "Sicherheitstechnologien und neue urbane Sicherheitsregimes," ITA manu:scripts 06_05, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
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Keywords
Foresight exercises; Delphi methods; self-rating of experts; expert optimism;All these keywords.
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBE-2002-10-18 (Cognitive and Behavioural Economics)
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