IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genres/12937.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using a Farmer's Beta for Improved Estimation of Expected Yields

Author

Listed:
  • Carriquiry, Miguel A.
  • Babcock, Bruce A.
  • Hart, Chad E.

Abstract

Effects of sampling error in estimation of farmers’ mean yields for crop insurance purposes and their implications for actuarial soundness are explored using farm-level corn yield data in Iowa. Results indicate that sampling error, combined with nonlinearities in the indemnity function, leads to empirically estimated insurance rates that exceed actuarially fair values. The difference depends on the coverage level, the number of observations used, and the participation strategy followed by farmers. A new estimator for mean yields based on the decomposition of farm yields into systemic and idiosyncratic components is proposed, which could lead to improved rate-making and reduce adverse selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Hart, Chad E., 2008. "Using a Farmer's Beta for Improved Estimation of Expected Yields," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12937, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12937
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004. "Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
    2. James A. Vercammen, 2000. "Constrained Efficient Contracts for Area Yield Crop Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 856-864.
    3. Bharat Ramaswami & Terry L. Roe, 2004. "Aggregation in Area-Yield Crop Insurance: The Linear Additive Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 420-431.
    4. Jerry R. Skees & Michael R. Reed, 1986. "Rate Making for Farm-Level Crop Insurance: Implications for Adverse Selection," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(3), pages 653-659.
    5. Barnett, Barry J. & Black, J. Roy & Hu, Yingyao & Skees, Jerry R., 2005. "Is Area Yield Insurance Competitive with Farm Yield Insurance?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Olivier Mahul, 1999. "Optimum area yield crop insurance," Post-Print hal-01952090, HAL.
    7. Mario J. Miranda, 1991. "Area-Yield Crop Insurance Reconsidered," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 233-242.
    8. Olivier Mahul, 1999. "Optimum Area Yield Crop Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 75-82.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adhikari, Shyam & Knight, Thomas O. & Belasco, Eric J., 2012. "Evaluation of Crop Insurance Yield Guarantees and Producer Welfare with Upward-Trending Yields," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Octavio A. Ramirez & Carlos A. Carpio, 2012. "Premium estimation inaccuracy and the actuarial performance of the US crop insurance program," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 72(1), pages 117-133, May.
    3. Gerlt, Scott & Thompson, Wyatt & Miller, Douglas, 2014. "Exploiting the Relationship between Farm-Level Yields and County-Level Yields for Applied Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-18.
    4. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Carpio, Carlos E. & Rejesus, Roderick M., 2011. "Can Crop Insurance Premiums Be Reliably Estimated?," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Adhikari, Shyam & Knight, Thomas O. & Belasco, Eric J., 2013. "Yield Guarantees and the Producer Welfare Benefits of Crop Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-17, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Kast, 2011. "Managing financial risks due to natural catastrophes," Working Papers hal-00610241, HAL.
    2. Stigler, Matthieu M. & Lobell, David, 2020. "Suitability of index insurance: new insights from satellite data," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304663, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Lauriane Yehouenou & Barry J Barnett & Ardian Harri & Keith H Coble, 2018. "STAX Appeal?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 563-584, December.
    4. Matthieu Stigler & David Lobell, 2020. "On the benefits of index insurance in US agriculture: a large-scale analysis using satellite data," Papers 2011.12544, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Geoffroy Enjolras & Robert Kast & Patrick Sentis, 2009. "Diversification in Area-Yield Crop Insurance : The Multi Linear Additive Model," Working Papers 09-15, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Nov 2009.
    6. Zhiwei Shen & Martin Odening, 2013. "Coping with systemic risk in index-based crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 1-13, January.
    7. Douadia Bougherara & Laurent Piet, 2018. "On the role of probability weighting on WTP for crop insurance with and without yield skewness," Working Papers hal-02790605, HAL.
    8. Mason, Charles Edwin, IV, 2000. "Estimation and attenuation of reinsurance risk in the crop insurance market," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000013703, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Deng, Xiaohui & Barnett, Barry J. & Hoogenboom, Gerrit & Yu, Yingzhuo & Garcia y Garcia, Axel, 2008. "Alternative Crop Insurance Indexes," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Bharat Ramaswami & Terry L. Roe, 2002. "Aggregation in area yield insurance:The linear additive model," Discussion Papers 02-08, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    11. Mahul, Olivier, 2002. "Hedging Price Risk in the Presence of Crop Yield and Revenue Insurance," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24881, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Mahul, Olivier, 2002. "Hedging Price Risk In The Presence Of Crop Yield And Revenue Insurance," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19070, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    13. Bougherara, Douadia & Piet, Laurent, 2014. "The Impact of Farmers’ Risk Preferences on the Design of an Individual Yield Crop Insurance," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183082, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Ramaswami, Bharat & Roe, Terry L., 2001. "Structural Models Of Area Yield Crop Insurance," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20638, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Matthieu Stigler & David Lobell, 2021. "Optimal index insurance and basis risk decomposition: an application to Kenya," Papers 2111.08601, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    16. Mitchell, Paul D. & Knight, Thomas O., 2008. "Economic Analysis of Supplemental Deductible Coverage as Recommended in the USDA's 2007 Farm Bill Proposal," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, April.
    17. Chantarat, Sommarat & Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Turvey, Calum G., 2017. "Welfare Impacts of Index Insurance in the Presence of a Poverty Trap," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 119-138.
    18. Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Mude, Andrew G., 2014. "Basis Risk and the Welfare Gains from Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya," MPRA Paper 59153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Baerenklau, Kenneth A., 2005. "Some Simulation Results for a Green Insurance Mechanism," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    adverse selection; actual production history; APH; crop insurance; mean yields estimation; sampling error;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.