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Deutsche Konjunktur trotz globaler Unsicherheit aufwärtsgerichtet

Author

Listed:
  • Gustav A. Horn

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Jan Behringer

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Alexander Herzog-Stein

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Peter Hohlfeld

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Fabian Lindner

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sabine Stephan

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich auf einem verhaltenen Wachstumskurs. Während sich in den USA die konjunkturelle Dynamik spürbar beschleunigt, kommt es in den meisten Schwellenländern zu einer Abschwächung des Wachstums. Im Euroraum dürfte sich, bei merklich verlangsamter Haushaltskonsolidierung, der Erholungskurs fortsetzen. Das Wachstum im Euroraum außerhalb Deutschlands beträgt im Jahr 2015 1,3 % (2016: 1,8 %).In Deutschland bleibt die Konjunktur im Prognosezeitraum trotz globaler Unsicherheit weiterhin aufwärtsgerichtet. Dabei wird verstärkt die Binnennachfrage für ein stabiles Wachstum sorgen. Insbesondere werden die privaten Konsumausgaben bei abermals deutlich steigenden Realeinkommen sowie der weiterhin positiven Arbeitsmarktentwicklung einen maßgeblichen Beitrag leisten. Auch die Investitionen werden von zunehmender Bedeutung sein. Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2015 1,8 % betragen (2016: 2,0%). Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt 6,4 % (2016: 6,3 %) und die Verbraucherpreise steigen nur um 0,4 % (2016: 1,4 %).Höchste Priorität der Wirtschaftspolitik sollten alle Maßnahmen haben, die dazu beitragen, die nach wie vor schwelende Krise des Euroraums zu überwinden. Dazu gehört, neben der weiterhin expansiven Geldpolitik, dass die Fiskalpolitik verstärkt öffentliche Investitionen durchführt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav A. Horn & Jan Behringer & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur trotz globaler Unsicherheit aufwärtsgerichtet," IMK Report 106-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:106-2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Peichl & Martin Ungerer & Richard Hauser & Stefan Sell & Judith Niehues & Christoph Schröder & Dorothee Spannagel & Anita Tiefensee & Helmut Dedy & Gerhard Bosch & Thorsten Kalina, 2017. "Mythos oder Realität: Werden die Armen immer ärmer und die Reichen immer reicher?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(10), pages 03-26, May.
    2. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Heike Joebges & Torsten Niechoj & Ulrike Stein & Rudolf Zwiener, 2015. "German labour costs have risen only moderately," IMK Report 109e-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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