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Der gefährdete Aufschwung - Prognose der Wirtschafzlichen Entwicklung 2014/2015

Author

Listed:
  • Gustav A. Horn

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Alexander Herzog-Stein

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Peter Hohlfeld

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Fabian Lindner

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Ansgar Rannenberg

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sabine Stephan

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Die Weltkonjunktur wird im Prognosezeitraum auf einer regional breit angelegten Basis an Tempo gewinnen. So wird insbesondere das Wachstum in den USA merklich anziehen. Aber auch die Wirtschaft im Euroraum ohne Deutschland wird nach einer anfänglich nur verhaltenen Dynamik im Verlauf des nächsten Jahres verstärkt expandieren. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) im Euroraum ohne Deutschland wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2014 nahezu stagnieren (0,2%) und 2015 um 1,3 % wachsen.In Deutschland dürfte sich die Konjunktur wieder beleben und im weiteren Verlauf des Prognosezeitraums an Dynamik gewinnen. Dabei nehmen insbesondere die privaten Konsumausgaben spürbar zu und auch die Investitionen erholen sich kräftig. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wächst 2014 um 1,5 % und 2015 um 1,9 %. Die Verbraucherpreise nehmen nur sehr verhalten zu (2014: 1,1 % und 2015: 1,3 %). Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt in diesem Jahr 6,7 % und im nächsten Jahr 6,6 %. Um die fragile Erholung im Euroraum abzusichern, sollte die Geldpolitik weiterhin expansiv ausgerichtet bleiben und der restriktive Kurs der Finanzpolitik im Euroraum als Ganzes dringend gelockert werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2014. "Der gefährdete Aufschwung - Prognose der Wirtschafzlichen Entwicklung 2014/2015," IMK Report 98-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:98-2014
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