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Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data

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  • Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro
  • Andras Komaromi

Abstract

World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as households and firms scaled back spending. This paper attempts to disentangle the supply and demand channels in trade by quantifying the causal effect of supply spillovers from lockdowns. We utilize a novel dataset of daily bilateral seaborne trade, and design a shift-share identification strategy that leverages geography-induced cargo delivery lags to track the transmission of supply disruptions across space. We find strong but short-lived supply spillovers of lockdowns through international trade. Moreover, the evidence is suggestive of the downstream propagation of countries’ lockdowns through global supply chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Andras Komaromi, 2020. "Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data," IMF Working Papers 2020/284, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/284
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    Cited by:

    1. João Amador & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Ana Catarina Pimenta, 2023. "COVID-19, lockdowns and international trade: evidence from firm-level data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2427-2466, November.
    2. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Hongyi Chen & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Lockdown Spillovers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Das, Sonali & Magistretti, Giacomo & Pugacheva, Evgenia & Wingender, Philippe, 2022. "Sectoral spillovers across space and time," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Meier, Matthias & Pinto, Eugenio, 2024. "COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Sally Chen & Eric Tsang & Leanne Si Ying Zhang, 2023. "Global supply chain interdependence and shock amplification - evidence from Covid lockdowns," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Aaron Flaaen & Flora Haberkorn & Logan Lewis & Anderson Monken & Justin Pierce & Rosemary Rhodes & Madeleine Yi, 2023. "Bill of lading data in international trade research with an application to the COVID‐19 pandemic," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1146-1172, August.
    8. Gefang, Deborah & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2024. "Quantifying spillovers among regions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. ARATA Yoshiyuki & MIYAKAWA Daisuke, 2022. "Demand Shock Propagation Through an Input-output Network in Japan," Discussion papers 22027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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