IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i17p9659-d623516.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Sergej Gricar

    (Faculty of Business and Management, University of Novo Mesto, Na Loko 2, 8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia
    Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Primorska 46, p.p. 97, 51410 Opatija, Croatia)

  • Tea Baldigara

    (Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Primorska 46, p.p. 97, 51410 Opatija, Croatia)

  • Violeta Šugar

    (Faculty of Economics and Tourism “Dr. Mijo Mirković”, Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Zagrebačka 30, 52100 Pula, Croatia)

Abstract

This study considers diversification effects and significant influences on tourist arrivals as a vital export direction. Different quantitative methods, namely a cointegrated-autoregressive model, panels, sentiment and sensitivity analysis, were used in this study. The time-series data for Croatia and Slovenia were isolated from several secondary sources. The variables examined in this approach are tourist arrivals, precipitations, sunny days, earthquakes, microbes and CO 2 emissions. The study results showed that there is a severe negative effect on tourist arrivals defined by viruses. Moreover, there is a significant decisive effect of weather conditions on tourist arrivals. Nevertheless, it is necessary to move past Covid-19 pandemic discussions to yield more accurate tourism supply forecasts, while demand is already somehow low since the beginning of 2020. The primary significance is to develop a broader thinking about the impacts of CO 2 emissions on the tourism escorted to official tourist websites.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergej Gricar & Tea Baldigara & Violeta Šugar, 2021. "Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9659-:d:623516
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/17/9659/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/17/9659/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alejandra R. Enríquez & Angel Bujosa Bestard, 2020. "Measuring the economic impact of climate-induced environmental changes on sun-and-beach tourism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 203-217, May.
    2. Serhan Cevik, 2022. "Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 141-156, February.
    3. Hélder da Silva Lopes & Paula C. Remoaldo & Vitor Ribeiro & Javier Martín-Vide, 2021. "Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tourist Risk Perceptions—The Case Study of Porto," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-29, June.
    4. Verikios, George, 2020. "The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: the case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus," MPRA Paper 104434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    6. Josef Trögl & Jana Pavlorková & Pavla Packová & Josef Seják & Pavel Kuráň & Jan Popelka & Jan Pacina, 2016. "Indication of Importance of Including Soil Microbial Characteristics into Biotope Valuation Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-10, March.
    7. Scott, Daniel & Hall, C. Michael & Gössling, Stefan, 2019. "Global tourism vulnerability to climate change," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 49-61.
    8. Ulrika Persson-Fischer & Shuangqi Liu, 2021. "The Impact of a Global Crisis on Areas and Topics of Tourism Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-26, January.
    9. Nelson Mpumi & Revocatus S. Machunda & Kelvin M. Mtei & Patrick A. Ndakidemi, 2020. "Selected Insect Pests of Economic Importance to Brassica oleracea , Their Control Strategies and the Potential Threat to Environmental Pollution in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, May.
    10. Shuang Liu & Rui Liu & Nengzhi Tan, 2021. "A Spatial Improved-kNN-Based Flood Inundation Risk Framework for Urban Tourism under Two Rainfall Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lukas Cibik & Leon Richvalsky, 2023. "The Economy of EU Member Countries in 2020 from Perspective of Magic Square," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 3-21.
    2. Zhihui Wang & Liangzhen Nie & Eila Jeronen & Lihua Xu & Meiai Chen, 2023. "Understanding the Environmentally Sustainable Behavior of Chinese University Students as Tourists: An Integrative Framework," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Fengting Zhang & Md Nazirul Islam Sarker & Yang Lv, 2022. "Coupling Coordination of the Regional Economy, Tourism Industry, and the Ecological Environment: Evidence from Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Mirela Tase & Enkeleda Lulaj, 2022. "The Effect of Perceptions on Tourism: An Econometric Analysis of the Impacts and Opportunities for Economic and Financial Development in Albania and Kosovo," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-29, June.
    5. Gergely Szolnoki & Susan Bail & Maximilian Tafel & Aron Feher & Cristina Veith, 2022. "A Cross-Cultural Comparison of New Implemented Sustainable Wine Tourism Strategies during the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Sergej Gričar & Violeta Šugar, 2021. "Sustainable Consumption Using the Example of Food Processing in a Restaurant," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Vijay Kumar & Hammam Alshazly & Sahar Ahmed Idris & Sami Bourouis, 2021. "Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 on Society, Environment, Economy, and Education," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Sergej Gricar & Violeta Šugar & Jasmina Starc, 2023. "Interrelationships among Tourism, Economic, and Environmental Time Series—The Case of Slovenia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Sergej Gričar & Štefan Bojnec, 2022. "Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-15, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carmen-Mihaela Cretu & Anca-Gabriela Turtureanu & Carmen-Gabriela Sirbu & Florentina Chitu & Emanuel Ştefan Marinescu & Laurentiu-Gabriel Talaghir & Daniela Monica Robu, 2021. "Tourists’ Perceptions Regarding Traveling for Recreational or Leisure Purposes in Times of Health Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-24, July.
    2. NaHyun Lee & Bong-Seok Kim, 2023. "Differences of Host Country-Destination Image Assessment for International Students According to Risk Perception in COVID-19 Tourism," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.
    3. Daniel Bulin & Georgică Gheorghe & Iulian-Petru Tenie, 2021. "EU Most Vulnerable Economies from the Tourism Sector Perspective: a Macroeconomic Approach," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 9(1), pages 48-54, June.
    4. Marc Jim Mariano & George Verikios, 2022. "Understanding the Effects of Coronavirus on Australian Households: A Macro–Micro Analysis," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(3), pages 215-231, September.
    5. Naimoli, Antonio, 2022. "Modelling the persistence of Covid-19 positivity rate in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    6. Robert Steiger & O. Cenk Demiroglu & Marc Pons & Emmanuel Salim, 2023. "Climate and carbon risk of tourism in Europe," Post-Print halshs-03932019, HAL.
    7. Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Alomari, Mohammad & Mensi, Walid & Matar, Ali & Saidat, Zaid, 2021. "Does tracking the infectious diseases impact the gold, oil and US dollar returns and correlation? A quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Natalia Porto & Matías Ciaschi, 2021. "Reformulating the tourism-extended environmental Kuznets curve: A quantile regression analysis under environmental legal conditions," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 991-1014, August.
    9. Miroslav Rončák & Petr Scholz & Ivica Linderová, 2021. "Safety Concerns and Travel Behavior of Generation Z: Case Study from the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect tourism demand? Evidence from time-varying causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1484-1498, September.
    11. Gilani Larimi, Niloofar & Azhdari, Abolghasem & Ghousi, Rouzbeh & Du, Bo, 2022. "Integrating GIS in reorganizing blood supply network in a robust-stochastic approach by combating disruption damages," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    12. Rocco Mosconi & Paolo Paruolo, 2022. "Celebrated Econometricians: Katarina Juselius and Søren Johansen," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-4, May.
    13. HsiuJu Rebecca Yen & Hoa Pham Thi & Eldon Y. Li, 2021. "Understanding customer-centric socialization in tourism services," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 15(4), pages 695-723, December.
    14. Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2022. "Covid-19 and Capital Flows: The Responses of Investors to the Responses of Governments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 751-774, September.
    15. Lucília Cardoso & Eunice Lopes & Giovana Goretti Feijó de Almeida & Luís Lima Santos & Bruno Sousa & Jorge Simões & Fernando Perna, 2023. "Features of Nautical Tourism in Portugal—Projected Destination Image with a Sustainability Marketing Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-30, May.
    16. Zhenrao Cai & Dan Gao & Xin Xiao & Linguo Zhou & Chaoyang Fang, 2023. "The Flow of Green Exercise, Its Characteristics, Mechanism, and Pattern in Urban Green Space Networks: A Case Study of Nangchang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Alma Rocío García-García & Carlos Armando Jacobo-Hernández & Sergio Ochoa-Jiménez & Sacnicté Valdez-del Río, 2023. "Sustainable Development and Tourism: A Review of the Literature in WoS from 2001 to 2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Gong, Jiangyue & Gujjula, Krishna Reddy & Ntaimo, Lewis, 2023. "An integrated chance constraints approach for optimal vaccination strategies under uncertainty for COVID-19," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    19. Taher Safarrad & Mostafa Ghadami & Andreas Dittmann & Mousa Pazhuhan (Panahandeh Khah), 2021. "Tourism Effect on the Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Surface Temperature (LST): Babolsar and Fereydonkenar Cities (Cases Study in Iran)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, September.
    20. Simone Lucatello & Roberto Sánchez, 2022. "Climate Change in North America: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation. A Reflection Based on the IPCC Report AR6 - 2022," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(4), pages 1-18, Octubre -.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9659-:d:623516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.