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Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey

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  • Mr. Ippei Shibata

Abstract

Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ippei Shibata, 2019. "Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey," IMF Working Papers 2019/040, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu, 2013. "Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the US Unemployment Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 1054-1070, April.
    2. Joseph Kruskal, 1976. "More factors than subjects, tests and treatments: An indeterminacy theorem for canonical decomposition and individual differences scaling," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 41(3), pages 281-293, September.
    3. Hu, Yingyao, 2008. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models with misclassification error using instrumental variables: A general solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 27-61, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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