IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2012-298.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Bonding: Do U.S. Bond and Equity Spillovers Dominate Global Financial Markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
  • Mr. Trung T Bui

Abstract

This paper uses a novel variant of identification through hetroscedacity to estimate spillovers across U.S., Euro area, Japanese, and UK government bond and equity markets in a vector autoregression. The results suggest that U.S. financial shocks reverberate around the world much more strongly than shocks from other regions, including the Euro area, while inward spillovers to the U.S. from elsewhere are minimal. There is also evidence of two-way spillovers between the UK and Euro area financial markets and spillovers from Europe to Japan. The results also suggest that the uncertainty about the direction of causality of contemporaneous correlations—an issue that other techniques cannot tackle—is the dominant source of uncertainty in the estimated impulse response functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Trung T Bui, 2012. "Global Bonding: Do U.S. Bond and Equity Spillovers Dominate Global Financial Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2012/298, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40180
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "United States: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/202, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    7. Tamim Bayoumi & Trung Bui, 2011. "Apocalypse Then: The Evolution of the North Atlantic Economy and the Global Crisis," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 2000s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Deconstructing the International Business Cycle: Why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold?," IMF Working Papers 2010/239, International Monetary Fund.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "The United States: Spillover Report: 2011 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/203, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Youta Ishii, 2008. "International transmissions in US-Japanese stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1193-1200.
    11. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2010. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-131, February.
    12. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
    13. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2010. "The Ties that Bind: Measuring International Bond Spillovers Using Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 366-406, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina, 2018. "International spillovers in global asset markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 3-17.
    2. al Bdiwy, Feras & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The lead-lag relationship among select regional islamic equity markets," MPRA Paper 104973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kang, Sang Hoon & Maitra, Debasish & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Brooks, Robert, 2019. "Dynamic spillovers and connectedness between stock, commodities, bonds, and VIX markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Volatility spillovers across global asset classes: Evidence from time and frequency domains," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 194-202.
    5. Edwin M. Truman, 2014. "The Federal Reserve engages the world (1970-2000): an insider's narrative of the transition to managed floating and financial turbulence," Globalization Institute Working Papers 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Martin Ademmer & Wolfram Horn & Josefine Quast, 2022. "Stock market dynamics and the relative importance of domestic, foreign, and common shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3911-3923, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A comparison of different volatility models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    3. Tamim Bayoumi & Trung Bui, 2011. "Apocalypse Then: The Evolution of the North Atlantic Economy and the Global Crisis," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 2000s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    5. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2022. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 328-341, January.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-015 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Dmitry Kulikov & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2013. "Identifying monetary policy shocks via heteroskedasticity: a Bayesian approach," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-9, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
    8. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2015. "Theoretical Aspects of Modeling of the SVAR [Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]," Published Papers mak8, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Dmitry Kulikov & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2016. "Identifying Shocks in Structural VAR models via heteroskedasticity: a Bayesian approach," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 19 Feb 2016.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification in structural VAR models with different volatility regimes," Departmental Working Papers 2011-39, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    12. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    13. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from early empirical macroeconomic models to DSGE models," Working Papers 327, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    14. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    15. Tito Belchior Silva Moreira & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Mario Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2016. "An Evaluation of the Non-Neutrality of Money," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, March.
    16. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Consumption Risk Premia in the Cross Section of Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1529-1566, August.
    17. Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2008. "Matching theory and data: Bayesian vector autoregression and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-060, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    18. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
    19. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    20. Cordoni, Francesco & Dorémus, Nicolas & Moneta, Alessio, 2024. "Identification of vector autoregressive models with nonlinear contemporaneous structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    21. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.