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Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  • Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
  • Mrs. Sarwat Jahan

Abstract

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyze the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners' growth is high for LICs in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the emerging market leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mrs. Sarwat Jahan, 2012. "Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2012/049, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    2. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Knarik Ayvazyan & Ms. Teresa Daban Sanchez, 2015. "Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia," IMF Working Papers 2015/241, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Ms. Farayi Gwenhamo & Mr. Saji Thomas, 2013. "Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area," IMF Working Papers 2013/031, International Monetary Fund.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Uruguay: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/006, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Nina Biljanovska & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2016. "Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/102, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Almansour, Aseel & Aslam, Aqib & Bluedorn, John & Duttagupta, Rupa, 2015. "How vulnerable are emerging markets to external shocks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 460-483.
    8. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2013. "The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?," IMF Working Papers 2013/132, International Monetary Fund.

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