IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2009-155.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries

Author

Listed:
  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/155, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/155
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23113
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
    3. Mr. Srideep D Ganguly & Roberto Benelli, 2007. "Financial Linkages Between the U.S. and Latin America: Evidence from Daily Data," IMF Working Papers 2007/262, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    5. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    6. Zsófia Arvai & Karl Driessen & Ínci Ötker-Robe, 2009. "Regional Financial Interlinkages and Financial Contagion within Europe," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 522-540, December.
    7. P&aauml;r Österholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2008. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 595-623, December.
    8. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Ms. Li L Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 2007/074, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Olessia Korbut & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas & Cheikh A. Gueye, 2011. "Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2011/040, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Clemens, Michael A., 2020. "The Emigration Life Cycle: How Development Shapes Emigration from Poor Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 13614, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Zuzana Brixiova & Qingwei Meng & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 16(3), pages 141-162, July.
    4. Francisco Arizala & Mr. Matthieu Bellon & Ms. Margaux MacDonald, 2019. "Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2019/160, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova & Meng Qingwei, 2014. "Working Paper 198 - Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," Working Paper Series 2104, African Development Bank.
    6. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2015. "Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(53), pages 5707-5725, November.
    7. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    8. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Ms. Farayi Gwenhamo & Mr. Saji Thomas, 2013. "Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area," IMF Working Papers 2013/031, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2014. "Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2014/241, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Oyenyinka Sunday Omoshoro‐Jones & Lumengo Bonga‐Bonga, 2022. "Intra‐regional spillovers from Nigeria and South Africa to the rest of Africa: New evidence from a FAVAR model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 251-275, January.
    11. Hostland, Douglas & Giugale, Marcelo M., 2013. "Africa's macroeconomic story," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6635, The World Bank.
    12. You, Kefei & Dal Bianco, Silvia & Lin, Zhibin & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2019. "Bridging technology divide to improve business environment: Insights from African nations," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 268-280.
    13. Porzecanski, Arturo C., 2009. "Latin America: The Missing Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 18780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2010. "The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/205, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Hans Weisfeld & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Martin Schindler & Mr. Nikola Spatafora & Mr. Andrew Berg, 2011. "Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries: Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/027, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mrs. Sarwat Jahan, 2012. "Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2012/049, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "The Quest for Higher Growth in the WAEMU Region: The Role of Accelerations and Decelerations," IMF Working Papers 2011/174, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel Guérineau & Hélène Ehrhart, 2012. "The impact of high and volatile commodity prices on public finances: Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00659100, HAL.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/205, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hélène Ehrhart & Samuel Guérineau, 2012. "Commodity price volatility and Tax revenues: Evidence from developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-00658210, HAL.
    4. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Growth of Resource Economies: A Tale of Two Countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2011-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Samuel Guérineau & Hélène Ehrhart, 2012. "The impact of high and volatile commodity prices on public finances: Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00659098, HAL.
    6. Samuel GUERINEAU & Hélène EHRHART, 2011. "Commodity price volatility and Tax revenues: Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers 201131, CERDI.
    7. Ciccone, Antonio, 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 12625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Qian, Chenqi & Zhang, Tianding & Li, Jie, 2023. "The impact of international commodity price shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from the US and China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Elvis Dze Achuo & Tii N. Nchofoung & Simplice A. Asongu & Gildas Dohba Dinga, 2021. "Unravelling the Mysteries of Underdevelopment in Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/073, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    10. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2015. "Optimal Weather Conditions, Economic Growth, and Political Transitions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-30.
    11. Ales, Laurence & Maziero, Pricila & Yared, Pierre, 2014. "A theory of political and economic cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 224-251.
    12. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2017. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 347-368, April.
    13. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2014. "Can oil-led growth and structural change go hand in hand in Ghana?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 507-523.
    14. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2008. "Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2008-06, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu & Soumaré, Issouf, 2019. "How do natural resource endowment and institutional quality influence the nexus between external indebtedness and welfare in Africa?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 77-98.
    16. Pendergast, Shannon M. & Clarke, Judith A. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2008. "Corruption, Development and the Curse of Natural Resources," Working Papers 37913, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
    17. Benedikt Goderis & Samuel W. Malone, 2011. "Natural Resource Booms and Inequality: Theory and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113, pages 388-417, 06.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.