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Inflation Uncertainty and Relative Price Variability in WAEMU Countries

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  • Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
  • Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos

Abstract

Using a consistent dataset and methodology for all eight member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1994 to 2009, this paper provides evidence of the two major channels for real effects of inflation: inflation uncertainty and relative price variability. In line with theory and most evidence for advanced and emerging market economies, higher inflation increases inflation uncertainty and relative price variability in all WAEMU countries. However, the pattern, magnitude and timing of these two channels vary considerably by country. The findings raise several policy issues for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, 2011. "Inflation Uncertainty and Relative Price Variability in WAEMU Countries," IMF Working Papers 2011/059, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Nazif Çatik & Christopher Martin & A. Özlem Onder, 2011. "Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(5), pages 546-561, September.
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    3. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Variability in employment, prices, and money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-4, January.
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    1. Carlos Caceres & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Darlena Tartari, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(2), pages 239-275, March.
    2. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2022. "Is Inflation Uncertainty a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? The Inflation-Inflation Uncertainty Nexus and Inflation Targeting in South Africa," Working Papers 202254, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. van Heerden, Jan H. & Bohlmann, Heinrich, 2014. "The incidence of a carbon tax - a dynamic CGE study," Conference papers 332529, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Revenue and expenditure nexus: A case study of ECOWAS," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-57, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Eric Girardin & Cheikh A. T. Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 295-320, April.
    6. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2015. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 53(4), pages 237-271, December.
    7. Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE & Cheikh Tidiane NDIAYE, 2012. "Incertitude de l'inflation et croissance économique : le cas de l'UEMOA," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 753, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Jeleta Kebede & Saroja Selvanathan & Athula Naranpanawa, 2024. "Financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness in a monetary union: Heterogenous panel approach," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 779-805, July.
    9. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufr??not, & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2013. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1062, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Nasr, Adnen Ben & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ajmi, Ahdi N. & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2015. "Causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 46-68.
    11. Forgha Godfrey NJIMANTED & Daniel AKUME & Emmanuel Mbella MUKETE, 2016. "The Impact of Key Monetary Variables on the Economic Growth of the CEMAC Zone," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 4(2), pages 54-67.
    12. Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte, 2012. "Incertitude de l'inflation et croissance économique : le cas de l'UEMOA," Working Papers halshs-00828156, HAL.
    13. Apostolos Serletis & Jinan Liu, 2022. "Inflation and economic activity in advanced and emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4196-4223, October.
    14. Biagio Bossone, 2014. "Liquidity and capital under uncertainty and changing market sentiment: A simple analysis," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 98-105, April.
    15. Bossone, Biagio, 2014. "Liquidity and capital under uncertainty and changing market sentiment: A simple analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 98-105.
    16. Olivo, Victor, 2014. "Inflation,Inflation Variability, and Output Performance. Venezuela 1951-2002," MPRA Paper 57216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Alimi, R. Santos, 2017. "Association between inflation rates and inflation uncertainty in quantile regression," MPRA Paper 79683, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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