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Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey

Author

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  • A. Nazif Çatik
  • Christopher Martin
  • A. Özlem Onder

Abstract

Purpose - Using data from Turkey, this paper seeks to investigate whether relative price changes can help to explain the Phillips Curve relationship between inflation and output. Design/methodology/approach - Building on work by Ball and Mankiw, the paper includes measures of the variance and skews of relative price adjustment in an otherwise standard model of the Phillips Curve. It employs a bounds‐testing approach based on an ARDL model to establish long‐run relationships. It then uses error correction models to analyze short‐run dynamics. Findings - No evidence was found for a long‐run relationship between inflation and output. However, a long‐run relationship is in fact found, once the variance and skew of relative price changes are included as regressors. The error correction model implies plausible short‐term dynamics in this case. Originality/value - This paper combines two distinct literatures, on the Phillips Curve and on the distribution of relative price changes, showing that insights from the latter can be essential in constructing coherent models of the Philips Curve.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Nazif Çatik & Christopher Martin & A. Özlem Onder, 2011. "Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(5), pages 546-561, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:38:y:2011:i:5:p:546-561
    DOI: 10.1108/01443581111161814
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    Cited by:

    1. Sartaj Rasool Rather & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2015. "Price Rigidity, Inflation and the Distribution of Relative Price Changes," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(2), pages 258-287, December.
    2. Ferda Halicioglu & Natalya Ketenci, 2018. "Testing the productivity bias hypothesis in Middle East countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(5), pages 922-931, October.
    3. Sartaj Rasool Rather, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of relative price shocks in presence of trend inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(9), pages 755-758, May.
    4. Ferda Halıcıoğlu & Kasım Eren, 2017. "Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey," Yildiz Social Science Review, Yildiz Technical University, vol. 3(1), pages 35-46.
    5. Sartaj Rather, 2016. "Asymmetric Impact of Relative Price Shocks in Presence of Trend Inflation," Working Papers id:11477, eSocialSciences.
    6. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    7. Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, 2011. "Inflation Uncertainty and Relative Price Variability in WAEMU Countries," IMF Working Papers 2011/059, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips Curve; Relative price variability; Skewness; Variable costs; Inflation; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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