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Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: A Fresh Perspective

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  • Mr. Ari Aisen
  • Mr. David Hauner

Abstract

We extend the literature on budget deficits and interest rates in three ways: we examine both advanced and emerging economies and for the first time a large emerging market panel; explore interactions to explain some of the heterogeneity in the literature; and apply system GMM. There is overall a highly significant positive effect of budget deficits on interest rates, but the effect depends on interaction terms and is only significant under one of several conditions: deficits are high, mostly domestically financed, or interact with high domestic debt; financial openness is low; interest rates are liberalized; or financial depth is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ari Aisen & Mr. David Hauner, 2008. "Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: A Fresh Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2008/042, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/042
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