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What Moves OECD Real Interest Rates?

Author

Listed:
  • Driffill, John
  • Snell, Andrew

Abstract

This paper conducts a structural time-series analysis of ex-ante real interest rates of the five major OECD economies. The relationships of rates to permanent and temporary real and nominal shocks appear to be qualitatively consistent with predictions of stochastic general equilibrium business cycle models. U.S. real and nominal shocks are found to be the most important causes of persistence in rates, but only nominal shocks cause dynamic movements that are coherent across all countries. The rise in real interest rates in the early 1980s was mainly due to nominal shocks; real shocks played little or no role.

Suggested Citation

  • Driffill, John & Snell, Andrew, 2003. "What Moves OECD Real Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 375-402, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:35:y:2003:i:3:p:375-402
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    Cited by:

    1. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Boewer Böwer, Uwe, 2006. "Risk Sharing, Financial integration, and "Mundell II" in the Enlarged European Union," Institute of European Studies, Working Paper Series qt2xz37086, Institute of European Studies, UC Berkeley.
    3. Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Examining real interest parity: Which component reverts quickest and in which regime?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-83.
    4. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Pilegaard, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "The output gap and the real interest rate gap in the euro area, 1960-2003," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 775-790, October.
    5. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2007. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and ¿Self-Insurance¿," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1606, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Miller, Marcus, 2006. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and 'Self-insurance'," CEPR Discussion Papers 6000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and ¿Self-Insurance¿," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6731, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2006. "Capital Flows, Interest Rates and Precautionary Behaviour: a model of "global imbalances"," WEF Working Papers 0014, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    9. Ya-Chi Huang & Chueh-Yung Tsao, 2018. "Evolutionary Frequency and Forecasting Accuracy: Simulations Based on an Agent-Based Artificial Stock Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 79-104, June.
    10. Helmut Herwartz & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2006. "Panel non stationary tests of the Fisher hypothesis in a world wide context. An analysis of 114 economies during the period 1960-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    11. Ari Aisen & David Hauner, 2013. "Budget deficits and interest rates: a fresh perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2501-2510, June.
    12. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2010. "Does Real Interest Rate Parity Hold For Oecd Countries? New Evidence Using Panel Stationarity Tests With Cross‐Section Dependence And Structural Breaks," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(5), pages 568-590, November.

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