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Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: How Sustainable Is The “New Economy”?

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  • Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Mr. David Hauner

Abstract

This paper explores the determinants of long-term government bond yields in the Group of Seven (G-7) economies and analyzes the factors that could explain the conundrum of very low rates in the face of a variety of adverse factors in recent years. In particular, the paper focuses on the deteriorating fiscal position in the G-7 economies and enquires which factors could have offset their impact on long-term interest rates, and how sustainable they are likely to be. A model of interest rate determination is elaborated and estimated for the G-7, with explicit emphasis on capital flows and public savings. The results suggest a high likelihood of a substantial impact of the weaker budgetary positions in the G-7 on global interest rates when the offsetting unprecedented capital flows slow down.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: How Sustainable Is The “New Economy”?," IMF Working Papers 2006/112, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/112
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    3. Pierre Bui Quang, 2018. "The effect of non-resident investments on the French sovereign spread," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-52, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Pierre Bui Quang, 2018. "The effect of non-resident investments on the French sovereign spread," Working Papers hal-04141676, HAL.
    5. Aitor Erce & Xu Jiang & Diana Zigraiova, 2020. "Quantifying Risks to Sovereign Market Access: Methods and Challenges," Globalization Institute Working Papers 377, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Conterius, Simeon & Akimov, Alexandr & Su, Jen-Je & Roca, Eduardo, 2023. "Do foreign investors have a positive impact on the domestic government bonds market? A panel pooled mean group approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 863-875.
    7. Wim Suyker, 2007. "The Chinese economy, seen from Japan and the Netherlands," CPB Memorandum 185.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Xavier Debrun & David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2009. "Independent Fiscal Agencies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 44-81, February.
    9. Wim Suyker & Henri de Groot, 2006. "China and the Dutch economy," CPB Document 127, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Kumar, Manmohan S. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Dynamics of international integration of government securities' markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 142-154, January.
    11. Serkan Arslanalp & Tigran Poghosyan, 2016. "Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(6), pages 45-67, June.
    12. Daniele Franco (editor), 2012. "Rules and institutions for sound fiscal policy after the crisis," Workshop and Conferences 11, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Shanaka J. Peiris, 2013. "Foreign Participation In Local Currency Bond Markets Of Emerging Economies," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(03), pages 1-15.
    14. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2010. "The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt," IMF Working Papers 2010/019, International Monetary Fund.

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