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Government debt expansion and stock returns

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  • Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski
  • Peter M. Jackson

Abstract

Using an international data set, this article documents a negative association between increases in the central government debt‐to‐GDP ratio and dollar‐denominated stock index returns. Depending on the estimation method, raising the debt ratio by 1 percentage point diminishes the stock returns by between 39 and 95 basis points. We show that this result cannot be explained by changes in the investment risk. Instead, government debt issuance exerts upward pressure on private interest rates and appears to signal a greater tax burden in the future. These two factors coincide to produce a fall in stock market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski & Peter M. Jackson, 2021. "Government debt expansion and stock returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5017-5030, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:4:p:5017-5030
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2052
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    2. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. António Afonso & José Alves & Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2022. "Financial, Institutional, and Macroeconomic Determinants of Cross-Country Portfolio Equity Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 9872, CESifo.
    4. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Dimos Andronoudis & Diogenis Baboukardos & Fanis Tsoligkas, 2024. "How the information content of integrated reporting flows into the stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 1057-1078, January.
    6. Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Boubaker, Sabri, 2024. "Government debt and stock price crash risk: International Evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Hamdi Ben-Nasr & Sabri Boubaker, 2024. "Government debt and stock price crash risk: International Evidence," Post-Print hal-04648524, HAL.
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