IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2005-091.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Peter S. Heller
  • Mr. David Hauner

Abstract

A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of "shocks," and (iv) the potential for raising revenue. This paper concludes that (i) there is scope, but within narrow limits, to reduce non-age-related expenditures; (ii) fiscal policy frameworks tend to understate risks; and (iii) prevailing tax rates leave little room for increasing taxation in the countries facing the strongest aging pressures. In sum, governments will have to adopt a much more ambitious fiscal policy stance to cope with aging populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Peter S. Heller & Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," IMF Working Papers 2005/091, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18223
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tanzi,Vito & Schuknecht,Ludger, 2000. "Public Spending in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662918, January.
    2. Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," IMF Working Papers 2005/071, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Martin Mühleisen & Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak & Mr. Stephan Danninger & Mr. David Hauner & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2005/066, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dr Martin Weale, 2005. "Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty for the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 250, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:3:p:347-364 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: How Sustainable Is The “New Economy”?," IMF Working Papers 2006/112, International Monetary Fund.
    3. David Hauner, 2007. "Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 347-364, August.
    4. Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2005. "Government Spending Adjustment: The OECD Since the 1990s," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2005.09, Bank of Israel.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Heller & David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(4), pages 325-350, August.
    2. David Hauner, 2007. "Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 347-364, August.
    3. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:3:p:347-364 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Andersen, Torben M., 2006. "The public sector and international integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 202-209, November.
    5. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2012. "Ageing, government budgets, retirement, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-115.
    6. Photis Lysandrou, 2016. "The colonization of the future: An alternative view of financialization and its portents," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 444-472, October.
    7. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, "undated". "Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes: What are the Stylized Facts?," Working Papers 189, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Vojtěch Roženský, 2012. "Mandatorní výdaje a flexibilita fiskální politiky v ČR [Mandatory Expenditure and the Flexibility of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(1), pages 40-57.
    9. Dan Anderberg, 2007. "Inefficient households and the mix of government spending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 127-140, April.
    10. Andersen, Torben M. & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Gestsson, Marias H., 2021. "Pareto-improving transition to fully funded pensions under myopia," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 169-212, June.
    11. Lora, Eduardo, 2008. "El futuro de los pactos fiscales en América Latina," Coediciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1310.
    12. Antonio Di Majo, 2020. "Budgeting pubblico, democrazia di bilancio, governo delle finanze pubbliche: la storia di una complessa interazione (Public budgeting, budet democracy, and public finances governance: History of a com," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(291), pages 237-259.
    13. Ant—nio Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2023. "The size of government," Chapters, in: António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio (ed.), Handbook on Public Sector Efficiency, chapter 1, pages 6-31, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Bedri Peci, 2016. "Fiscal Transparency In Theory And Practice: The Case Of Kosovo," International Journal of Business and Management, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 78-91, November.
    15. Christl, Michael & Köppl-Turyna, Monika & Kucsera, Dénes, 2018. "Public sector efficiency in Europe: Long-run trends, recent developments and determinants," Working Papers 14, Agenda Austria.
    16. Gaspar, Ví­tor & Afonso, António, 2006. "Excess burden and the cost of inefficiency in public services provision," Working Paper Series 601, European Central Bank.
    17. Murtin, Fabrice & Viarengo, Martina, 2008. "The convergence of compulsory schooling in Western Europe: 1950-2000," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 23311, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Greasley, David & McLaughlin, Eoin & Hanley, Nick & Oxley, Les, 2017. "Australia: a land of missed opportunities?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 674-698, December.
    19. Anthony J. Makin, 2014. "The Paradoxes and Pitfalls of Revived Fiscal Activism," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 59-67, February.
    20. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali, 2023. "Public Policy and Economic Misery Nexus: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing World," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 56-73, May.
    21. Asem Alshami, 2016. "Theoretical Evidences Regarding Methodologies Of Calculating Efficiency Of Public Sector," Management Strategies Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 34(4), pages 88-94.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; government; country; outlay;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.