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Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty for the UK

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  • Dr Martin Weale

Abstract

We assess the implications of demographic uncertainty for the United Kingdom's fiscal position. We construct stochastic population projections and then use the framework provided by generational accounts to project government revenues and expenditures. We present stochastic paths for the budget balance over time and also evaluate the frequency distribution of the increase in taxes needed to deliver fiscal solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Martin Weale, 2005. "Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty for the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 250, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:250
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Heller & David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(4), pages 325-350, August.
    2. Mr. Peter S. Heller & Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," IMF Working Papers 2005/091, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M., 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and policy rules under changing demographic forecasts," Discussion Papers 1265, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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