IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctl/louvec/2006021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Growth economics of epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Raouf, BOUCEKKINE

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)

  • Bity, DIENE
  • Theophile, AZOMAHOU

Abstract

This paper examines in an endogenous growth theory perspective the mechanisms through which epidemics affect long term growth. Investment in both physical and human capital are key transmission variables in this respect. The paper distinguishes between Spanish flu like epidemics and AIDS like epidemics. Two-sector growth models are shown to better reflect the specific effects of epidemics. The effects of an AIDS like pandemic on savings and education effort are also modelled via life expectancy. The paper is closed by an extension of the celebrated Cuddington-Hancock model to account for the latter features. An application to the South African case is provided. The main finding points at a delayed effect of Aids on economic growth due to the recent sharp drop in llife expectancy in this country.

Suggested Citation

  • Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Bity, DIENE & Theophile, AZOMAHOU, 2006. "The Growth economics of epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2006021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2006-21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boucekkine Raouf & Ruiz Tamarit Ramon, 2004. "Imbalance Effects in the Lucas Model: an Analytical Exploration," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
    3. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Dominique Peeters, 2007. "Early Literacy Achievements, Population Density, and the Transition to Modern Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 183-226, March.
    4. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1999. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 255-263, November.
    5. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
    6. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2005. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-192, June.
    7. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
    8. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    9. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    10. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    11. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
    12. Boucekkine, R. & Ruiz-Tamarit, J.R., 2008. "Special functions for the study of economic dynamics: The case of the Lucas-Uzawa model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 33-54, January.
    13. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Further Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS: The Dualistic, Labor-Surplus Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(3), pages 403-417, September.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:9:y:2004:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Gustav Feichtinger & Vladimir Veliov & Tsvetomir Tsachev, 2004. "Maximum Principle For Age And Duration Structured Systems: A Tool For Optimal Prevention And Treatment Of Hiv," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 3-28.
    16. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
    17. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    18. Gomez, Manuel A., 2003. "Equilibrium dynamics in the one-sector endogenous growth model with physical and human capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 367-375, November.
    19. Rosa Aísa & Fernando Pueyo, 2004. "Endogenous longevity, health and economic growth: a slow growth for a longer life?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10.
    20. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Cahu & Falilou Fall, 2011. "Accounting for the effects of AIDS on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00609798, HAL.
    2. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & LAFFARGUE, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2007037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Eric Nævdal, 2012. "Fighting Transient Epidemics—Optimal Vaccination Schedules Before And After An Outbreak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1456-1476, December.
    4. Curran, Declan & Fröling, Maria, 2010. "Large-scale mortality shocks and the Great Irish Famine 1845-1852," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1302-1314, September.
    5. Raouf Boucekkine & Bity Diene & Theophile Azomahou, 2008. "Growth Economics of Epidemics: A Review of the Theory," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
    6. Rahmiye Figen Ceylan & Burhan Ozkan & Esra Mulazimogullari, 2020. "Historical evidence for economic effects of COVID-19," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(6), pages 817-823, August.
    7. Raouf Boucekkine & Raouf Boucekkine, 2006. "Medium term dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 209, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raouf Boucekkine & Bity Diene & Theophile Azomahou, 2008. "Growth Economics of Epidemics: A Review of the Theory," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE, 2007. "A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007022, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    3. Azomahou, Theophile, 2008. "The Economic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa," MERIT Working Papers 2008-038, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Sanghamitra Das & Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay & Tridip Ray, 2008. "Negative reality of the HIV positives: Evaluating welfare loss in a low prevalence country," Discussion Papers 08-02, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    5. Boucekkine, Raouf & Laffargue, Jean-Pierre, 2010. "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-245, February.
    6. Raouf Boucekkine & Raouf Boucekkine, 2006. "Medium term dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 209, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Kathleen Beegle & Joachim De Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2008. "Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of HIV/AIDS," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 299-326, January.
    8. Paul Cahu & Falilou Fall, 2011. "Accounting for the effects of AIDS on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00609798, HAL.
    9. Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2012. "The social economic impact of AIDS: Accounting for intergenerational transmission, productivity and fertility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 369-381.
    10. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Samuel Pessôa & Marcelo Rodrigues Dos Santos, 2011. "The Impact Of Aids On Income And Human Capital," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 1104-1116, October.
    11. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
    12. Azomahou, Theophile & Soete, Luc & Diene, Bity & Diene, Mbaye, 2012. "Optimal health investment with separable and non-separable preferences," MERIT Working Papers 2012-047, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. de Araujo, Pedro & Murray, James, 2015. "A life insurance deterrent to risky behavior in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 548-576.
    14. Théophile T. Azomahou & Raouf Boucekkine & Bity Diene, 2009. "A closer look at the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(2), pages 201-244, June.
    15. Mizushima, Atsue, 2009. "Intergenerational transfers of time and public long-term care with an aging population," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 572-581, December.
    16. Ponthiere, Gregory, 2011. "Existence and stability of overconsumption equilibria," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 74-90.
    17. Belgi Turan, 2020. "Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 949-972, August.
    18. Francesco Ricci & Marios Zachariadis, 2013. "Education Externalities on Longevity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 404-440, July.
    19. Maik T. Schneider & Ralph Winkler, 2021. "Growth and Welfare under Endogenous Lifetimes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(4), pages 1339-1384, October.
    20. Théophile Azomahou & Bity Diene & Mbaye Diene & Luc Soete, 2015. "Optimal health investment and preference structure," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(3), pages 521-565, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemics; Human capital; Life expectancy; Growth theory; Spanish flu; AIDS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2006021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Virginie LEBLANC (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.