IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ihs/ihsesp/163.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Employment and Growth in an Aging Society. A Simulation Study for Austria

Author

Listed:
  • Baumgartner, Josef

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

  • Hofer, Helmut

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna)

  • Kaniovski, Serguei

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

  • Schuh, Ulrich

    (Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna)

  • Url, Thomas

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

Abstract

In this study we use a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort, we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform three alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include (1) purely demographic developments, (2) increasing labour market imperfections, and (3) higher economic growth due to a productivity shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Baumgartner, Josef & Hofer, Helmut & Kaniovski, Serguei & Schuh, Ulrich & Url, Thomas, 2004. "Employment and Growth in an Aging Society. A Simulation Study for Austria," Economics Series 163, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1602
    File Function: First version, 2004
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alois Guger & Christine Mayrhuber, 2001. "Labour Force Participation and Public Pension System. Changes in the Labour Market and Their Impact on the Pension Dependency Ratio," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 6(2), pages 47-56, April.
    2. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    3. Solow, Robert M., 2000. "Growth Theory: An Exposition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195109030.
    4. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    5. Manfred Koch & Christian Thimann, 1999. "From Generosity to Sustainability: The Austrian Pension System and Options for its Reform," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 21-38, March.
    6. Alois Guger & Christine Mayrhuber, 2001. "Erwerbsbeteiligung und Alterssicherung. Auswirkungen der Arbeitsmarktentwicklung auf die Pensionsquote," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(2), pages 111-119, February.
    7. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    8. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
    9. Thomas URL & Josef BAUMGARTNER & Helmut HOFER & Serguei KANIOVSKI & Andreas U. SCHUH, 2010. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM)," EcoMod2004 330600143, EcoMod.
    10. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    11. Josef Baumgartner & Helmut Hofer & Serguei Kaniovski & Ulrich Schuh & Thomas Url, 2004. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). Model Documentation and Simulations," WIFO Working Papers 224, WIFO.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Serguei Kaniovski & Fritz Breuss & Thomas Url, 2006. "Teilstudie 22: Modellsimulationen ausgewählter wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27461.
    2. Kluge, Jan & Lappoehn, Sarah & Plank, Kerstin, 2020. "The Determinants of Economic Competitiveness," IHS Working Paper Series 24, Institute for Advanced Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Ederer & Jürgen Janger & Serguei Kaniovski & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Johannes Berger & Ines Fortin & Helmut Hofer & Iain Paterson & Edith Skriner & Karin Schönpflug & Ulrich Schuh & Wolfgang, 2011. "Assessing the Lisbon Strategy 2005-2010 and Estimating Expected Effects from Reaching the EU 2020 Goals," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41747.
    2. Hofer, Helmut & Url, Thomas, 2005. "Growth Effects of Age-related Productivity Differentials in an Ageing Society. A Simulation Study for Austria," Economics Series 179, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2013. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46830.
    4. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2014. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results (2014)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47254.
    5. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    6. Martin O’Brien, 2011. "Discouraged Older Male Workers and the Discouraged Worker Effect," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 14(3), pages 217-235.
    7. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Thomas URL & Josef BAUMGARTNER & Helmut HOFER & Serguei KANIOVSKI & Andreas U. SCHUH, 2010. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM)," EcoMod2004 330600143, EcoMod.
    9. Maria João Ribeiro Thompson, 2003. "Complementarities, Costly Investment and Multiple Equilibria in a One-Sector Endogenous Growth Model," NIPE Working Papers 7/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. Martin O'BRIEN, 2010. "Older male labour force participation in OECD countries: Pension reform and “the reserve army of labour”," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 149(3), pages 239-259, September.
    11. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Viola Garstenauer, 2021. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67377.
    12. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    13. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Discussion Papers 605, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    14. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    15. Martin Werding & Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Sustainability of Public Finances in Germany: Simulations for the Medium and Long Run," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64, October.
    16. Url, Thomas, 2011. "Betriebliche und private Altersvorsorge in Österreich: Durchführungswege und Kosten für die öffentliche Hand," Sozialpolitische Studienreihe, Government of Austria, Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, Vienna, volume 6, number 6, July.
    17. Paul Atkinson, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    18. E Philip Davis, 2005. "Challenges Posed by Ageing to Financial and Monetary Stability*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 30(4), pages 542-564, October.
    19. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo.
    20. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Aging; Austria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Doris Szoncsitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deihsat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.