IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/psl/bnlqrr/200113.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Ignazio Visco

    (OECD, Paris (France))

Abstract

This paper focuses on the scope for a higher level of output and faster productivitygrowth to ease future fiscal pressures stemming from demographic developments in OECD countries over the next fifty years. After concluding that, without substantial reforms, pressure on government spending linked to ageing populations (both onpensions and health expenditures), will in general result in significant increases in expenditures to GDP ratios, the paper examines how these pressures might be redressed. Responses which focus on achieving an increase in the average number of years individuals spend active in the labour force and raising the level as well as widening the sources of individual provision of retirement income are recommended. Increasing output (through lower structural unemployment and higher female and elderly workers' participation rates) and its rate of growth (through gains in productivity) are seen as offering a complementary, though limited, response.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:2001:13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/9929/9811
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
    2. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    3. Ketil Hviding & Marcel Mérette, 1998. "Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reforms in The Context of Ageing Populations: Overlapping Generations Model Simulations for Seven OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 201, OECD Publishing.
    4. Ignazio Visco, 2000. "Welfare systems, ageing and work: an OECD perspective," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(212), pages 3-29.
    5. Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 61, OECD Publishing.
    6. Ignazio Visco, 2000. "Welfare systems, ageing and work: an OECD perspective," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(212), pages 3-29.
    7. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Foreman, Stephen & Litzinger, Patrick & O’Roark, Brian & Flanegin, Frank, 2011. "International Aging, Economic Incentives and Public Policy - Invecchiamento della popolazione, incentivi economici e politiche pubbliche," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(2), pages 195-209.
    2. Mr. Alejandro Izquierdo & Mr. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina & Jorge Puig & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Guillermo Javier Vuletin, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 2019/289, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Foreman, Stephen & Litzinger, Patrick & O’Roark, Brian & Flanegin, Frank, 2011. "International Aging, Economic Incentives and Public Policy - Invecchiamento della popolazione, incentivi economici e politiche pubbliche," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(2), pages 195-209.
    4. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ruy E. Lama & Juan Pablo Medina & Jorge P. Puig & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 26478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gordon L Clark, 2003. "Pension Security in the Global Economy: Markets and National Institutions in the 21st Century," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 35(8), pages 1339-1356, August.
    6. P. R. Lane, 2001. "The National Pensions Reserve Fund: Pitfalls and Opportunities," Trinity Economics Papers 20017, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    2. Paul Atkinson, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    3. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Spesa pensionistica:quanto conta la crescita economica?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 54(215), pages 273-308.
    4. E Philip Davis, 2005. "Challenges Posed by Ageing to Financial and Monetary Stability*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 30(4), pages 542-564, October.
    5. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2005. "Aging, Myopia, and the Pay‐As‐You‐Go Public Pension Systems of the G7: A Bright Future?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(3), pages 449-470, August.
    6. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    7. Martin O’Brien, 2011. "Discouraged Older Male Workers and the Discouraged Worker Effect," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 14(3), pages 217-235.
    8. Élisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "Vieillissement et protection sociale. Comparaison de six pays de l'Union Européenne," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 261-314.
    9. Josef Baumgartner & Helmut Hofer & Serguei Kaniovski & Ulrich Schuh & Thomas Url, 2006. "Employment and growth in an aging society: a simulation study for Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 19-33, March.
    10. Glomm, Gerhard & Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung, 2009. "Macroeconomic implications of early retirement in the public sector: The case of Brazil," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 777-797, April.
    11. Martin O'BRIEN, 2010. "Older male labour force participation in OECD countries: Pension reform and “the reserve army of labour”," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 149(3), pages 239-259, September.
    12. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    13. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Discussion Papers 605, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    14. Garry Young, 2002. "The implications of an ageing population for the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 159, Bank of England.
    15. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 1999-03, McMaster University.
    16. Velma Pijalovic & Lejla Lazovic-Pita & Almir Pestek, 2018. "The analysis of perceptions and attitudes related to ageing in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 255-278.
    17. Martin Werding & Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Sustainability of Public Finances in Germany: Simulations for the Medium and Long Run," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64, September.
    18. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    19. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    20. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ageing; Demographics; Economic Growth; Expenditure; Growth; Pension; Population; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:2001:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlo D'Ippoliti (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economiacivile.it .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.