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A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)

Author

Listed:
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Thomas Url

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Helmut Hofer
  • Viola Garstenauer

    (Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract

We use an updated version of the Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model (A-LMM) for a long-term projection of the Austrian economy until 2075. Our baseline scenario is the input for microsimulation models of the Austrian pension insurance system. A-LMM 2.0 is a neoclassical growth model using demographic indicators to determine TFP-growth, the savings and the inflation rate. The model allows for labour saving technological progress and replicates stylised facts about growing market economies with an ageing population. The current model update incorporates the recent population forecast, information from labour market and national accounts data. Compared to the previous report we expect higher labour market participation rates, lower output growth, and a temporary upswing in inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Viola Garstenauer, 2021. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67377, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:67377
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