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Universal Child Benefit And Child Poverty: The Role Of Fertility Adjustments

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  • Jan Gromadzki

Abstract

I study fertility adjustments after introducing a large universal child benefit in Poland. The program caused a six percent increase in the number of births. Patterns of selection into parenthood changed significantly and persistently, with a weakening of positive selection based on education and a strengthening of negative selection based on income. The share of births in the bottom half of the income distribution increased from 51 percent to 58 percent. Using a microsimulation approach, I combine changes in the birth structure with existing estimates of the transfer's effect on labour supply to study the impact of these adjustments on poverty reduction. These impacts are very small due to the exceptional generosity of the transfer, but they become more pronounced in the middle of the income distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Gromadzki, 2024. "Universal Child Benefit And Child Poverty: The Role Of Fertility Adjustments," IBS Working Papers 03/2024, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp032024
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    File URL: https://ibs.org.pl/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/UNIVERSAL-CHILD-BENEFIT-AND-CHILD-POVERTY_IBS_WP_3__2024.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; child benefit; unconditional cash transfer; poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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