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Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland

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  • Fuchs, Johann
  • Söhnlein, Doris

Abstract

"This paper provides a decomposition of the projected change in the overall labour force in East and West Germany into three parts. The first, called the 'demographic component', shows the effects of fertility, mortality and a changing age structure of the population. The second effect is the migration component. This part is due to the cumulative net inflow of migrants, but includes their reproductive behaviour as well. Changes in the participation rates give the third effect, the participation rate component. The decomposition was done by comparing different labour force scenarios up to 2050. The method can easily be extended for decomposition into more than three factors. According to our results, the negative impact of the demographic factor on the labour force is very clear and is caused by the projected ageing of population to a great extend. Neither a strong increase in labour participation nor high immigration flows can stop the downward trend in labour force. Specific is that the demographic impact is even stronger for East Germany. As the age structure is almost given and increasing fertility rates only have positive effects in the very long run, the projected decline in labour force should be taken as a fact." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2007. "Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland," IAB-Discussion Paper 200712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200712
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fuchs, Johann & Dörfler, Katrin, 2005. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2050 : Annahmen und Datengrundlage," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200525, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    6. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
    7. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Jan Dirk Vlasblom & Joop J. Schippers, 2004. "Increases in Female Labour Force Participation in Europe: Similarities and Differences," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 375-392, December.
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    10. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2006. "Effekte alternativer Annahmen auf die prognostizierte Erwerbsbevölkerung," IAB-Discussion Paper 200619, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    13. J.D. Vlasblom & J.J. Schippers, 2004. "Increases in Female Labour Force Participation in Europe: Similarities and Differences," Working Papers 04-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
    14. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Ostdeutschland (einschl. Berlin-Ost)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200518, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieter Bogai & Franziska Hirschenauer, 2008. "Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 44-54, 08.
    2. Dieter Bogai & Franziska Hirschenauer, 2008. "Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages .44-54, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ostdeutschland ; Westdeutschland ; Ausländer ; demografischer Wandel ; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial ; Geschlechterverteilung ; Migration ; Altersstruktur ; Prognose ; 1990-2050;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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