IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hka/wpaper/2022-001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mortgage Lenders and the Geographic Concentration of Foreclosures

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen L. Ross

    (University of Connecticut)

  • Yuan Wang

    (FreddieMac)

Abstract

We use HMDA rate spread loans to identify lenders involved in riskier lending prior to the foreclosure crisis. We develop a shift-share measure of changes in high rate spread share lender representation in housing submarkets across origination years. While half the cross-sectional correlation between foreclosure and high rate spread lender share is explained by borrower observables, we find robust and stable estimates of the within housing submarket relationship between foreclosure and predicted changes in market share. Estimates are not explained by local housing price variation, rather evidence suggests servicer behavior in response to rising local foreclosure rates as a mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen L. Ross & Yuan Wang, 2022. "Mortgage Lenders and the Geographic Concentration of Foreclosures," Working Papers 2022-001, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-001
    Note: MIP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://humcap.uchicago.edu/RePEc/hka/wpaper/Ross_Wang_2022_mortgage-lenders-geographic-foreclosures.pdf
    File Function: Firsts version, January 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Stephen L. Ross, 2016. "The Vulnerability of Minority Homeowners in the Housing Boom and Bust," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, February.
    2. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2017. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 654-712.
    3. Kristopher Gerardi & Stephen L. Ross & Paul Willen, 2011. "Understanding the foreclosure crisis," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 382-388, March.
    4. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
    5. Adam M Guren & Timothy J McQuade, 2020. "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1331-1364.
    6. Weiran Huang & Ashlyn Nelson & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "Foreclosure Spillovers within Broad Neighborhoods," Working papers 2018-23, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2014. "Predatory lending and the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 29-52.
    8. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    9. Kruger, Samuel, 2018. "The effect of mortgage securitization on foreclosure and modification," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 586-607.
    10. Gerardi Kristopher & Willen Paul, 2009. "Subprime Mortgages, Foreclosures, and Urban Neighborhoods," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-37, March.
    11. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 157-206.
    12. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2015. "Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2587-2634, December.
    13. Carozzi, Felipe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Yu, Xiaolun, 2024. "On the economic impacts of mortgage credit expansion policies: Evidence from help to buy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    15. Stephen L. Ross & John Yinger, 2002. "The Color of Credit: Mortgage Discrimination, Research Methodology, and Fair-Lending Enforcement," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262182289, December.
    16. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    17. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    18. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    19. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "What Drives Racial and Ethnic Differences in High-Cost Mortgages? The Role of High-Risk Lenders," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 175-205.
    20. Karim Chalak, 2019. "Identification of average effects under magnitude and sign restrictions on confounding," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(4), pages 1619-1657, November.
    21. Andra C. Ghent, 2011. "Securitization and Mortgage Renegotiation: Evidence from the Great Depression," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1814-1847.
    22. Ghent, Andra C. & Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T., 2014. "Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-215.
    23. Michael Greenstone & Alexandre Mas & Hoai-Luu Nguyen, 2020. "Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and "Normal" Economic Times," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 200-225, February.
    24. Christopher L. Foote & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Mortgage-Default Research and the Recent Foreclosure Crisis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 59-100, November.
    25. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    26. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2011. "The role of securitization in mortgage renegotiation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 559-578.
    27. Wei Jiang & Ashlyn Aiko Nelson & Edward Vytlacil, 2014. "Liar's Loan? Effects of Origination Channel and Information Falsification on Mortgage Delinquency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 1-18, March.
    28. Chan, Sewin & Haughwout, Andrew & Tracy, Joseph, 2015. "How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 987-1045, Elsevier.
    29. James N. Conklin & Moussa Diop & Thao Le & Walter D’Lima, 2019. "The Importance of Originator-Servicer Affiliation in Loan Renegotiation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 56-89, July.
    30. Christopher Mayer & Edward Morrison & Tomasz Piskorski & Arpit Gupta, 2014. "Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2830-2857, September.
    31. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2010. "Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 369-397, September.
    32. Paul S. Calem & Kevin Gillen & Susan Wachter, 2004. "The Neighborhood Distribution of Subprime Mortgage Lending," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 393-410, December.
    33. Michael LaCour-Little & Jing Yang, 2013. "Taking the Lie Out of Liar Loans: The Effect of Reduced Documentation on the Performance and Pricing of Alt-A and Subprime Mortgages," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(4), pages 507-554.
    34. Carolina K. Reid & Carly Urban & J. Michael Collins, 2017. "Rolling the Dice on Foreclosure Prevention: Differences Across Mortgage Servicers in Loan Modifications and Loan Cure Rates," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 1-27, January.
    35. Gerardi, Kristopher & Rosenblatt, Eric & Willen, Paul S. & Yao, Vincent, 2015. "Foreclosure externalities: New evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 42-56.
    36. Arpit Gupta, 2019. "Foreclosure Contagion and the Neighborhood Spillover Effects of Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2249-2301, October.
    37. Kelly D. Edmiston, 2009. "Characteristics of high foreclosure neighborhoods in the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 51-75.
    38. Elizabeth Laderman & Carolina Reid, 2009. "The untold costs of subprime lending: examining the links among higher-priced lending, foreclosures and race in California," Community Development Working Paper 2009-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    39. Paul Calem & Jonathan Hershaff & Susan Wachter, 2004. "Neighborhood patterns of subprime lending: Evidence from disparate cities," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 603-622.
    40. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    41. Lei Ding, 2013. "Servicer and Spatial Heterogeneity of Loss Mitigation Practices in Soft Housing Markets," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 521-542, July.
    42. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    43. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Douglas D. Evanoff, 2020. "Financial Education versus Costly Counseling: How to Dissuade Borrowers from Choosing Risky Mortgages?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, February.
    44. LaCour-Little, Michael & Calhoun, Charles A. & Yu, Wei, 2011. "What role did piggyback lending play in the housing bubble and mortgage collapse?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 81-100, June.
    45. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2010. "Market-Based Loss Mitigation Practices for Troubled Mortgages Following the Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series 2010-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marsha J. Courchane & Stephen L. Ross, 2019. "Evidence and Actions on Mortgage Market Disparities: Research, Fair Lending Enforcement, and Consumer Protection," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 769-794, September.
    2. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
    3. Milonas, Kristoffer, 2017. "The effect of foreclosure laws on securitization: Evidence from U.S. states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Agarwal, Sumit & Zhang, Yunqi, 2018. "Effects of government bailouts on mortgage modification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 54-70.
    5. James N. Conklin & Moussa Diop & Thao Le & Walter D’Lima, 2019. "The Importance of Originator-Servicer Affiliation in Loan Renegotiation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 56-89, July.
    6. Stuart Gabriel & Matteo Iacoviello & Chandler Lutz, 2021. "A Crisis of Missed Opportunities? Foreclosure Costs and Mortgage Modification During the Great Recession [Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 864-906.
    7. Giovanni Favara & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2017. "Forced Asset Sales and the Concentration of Outstanding Debt: Evidence from the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1118, June.
    8. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2014. "Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 20561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kuong, John Chi-Fong & Zeng, Jing, 2021. "Securitization and optimal foreclosure," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    10. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2015. "A New Look at the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis: Panel Data Evidence of Prime and Subprime Borrowers from 1997 to 2012," NBER Working Papers 21261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Stephanie Moulton & Yung Chun & Stephanie Casey Pierce & Roberto Quercia & Sarah Riley & Holly Holtzen, 2022. "Does Temporary Mortgage Assistance for Unemployed Homeowners Reduce Longer‐Term Mortgage Default? An Analysis of the Hardest Hit Fund Program," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 515-551, March.
    12. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "What Drives Racial and Ethnic Differences in High-Cost Mortgages? The Role of High-Risk Lenders," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 175-205.
    13. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2012. "Mortgage Financing in the Housing Boom and Bust," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 143-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Stephen L. Ross, 2014. "Race, Ethnicity and High-Cost Mortgage Lending," NBER Working Papers 20762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, 2020. "Achieving Effective Mortgage Modifications: The Importance of Household Characteristics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 151-182, August.
    16. Eric Higgins & Abdullah Yavas & Shuang Zhu, 2022. "Private mortgage securitization and loss given default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1334-1359, September.
    17. Kruger, Samuel, 2018. "The effect of mortgage securitization on foreclosure and modification," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 586-607.
    18. Chan, Sewin & Haughwout, Andrew & Tracy, Joseph, 2015. "How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 987-1045, Elsevier.
    19. Sumit Agarwal & Itzhak Ben-David & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2220-2240, September.
    20. Sumit Agarwal & Slava Mikhed & Barry Scholnick & Man Zhang, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Default in a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 21-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    rate spread loans; subprime lending; local housing markets; home purchase mortgages; house price declines; loan servicers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jennifer Pachon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfichus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.