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Sovereign risk and armed conflict: an event-study for colombia

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  • Andr�s Castañeda
  • Juan F. Vargas

Abstract

We study the causal effect of recent landmark events of the Colombian armed conflict on the foreign perception of sovereign risk, as measured by the price of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) of Colombian bonds. We construct a Synthetic Control Group to use as the non-conflict counterfactual of the Colombian CDS price and compare its behavior around relevant conflict-event dates with that of the actual (conflict-affected) Colombian CDS. Results suggest that the impact of conflict on the foreign perception of sovereign risk is sizable but rather idiosyncratic, and depends on the political context surrounding each event.

Suggested Citation

  • Andr�s Castañeda & Juan F. Vargas, 2012. "Sovereign risk and armed conflict: an event-study for colombia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 185-201, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:185-201
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.597233
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan F Vargas, 2009. "Military empowerment and civilian targeting in civil war," Documentos de Trabajo 5282, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. Haibin Zhu, 2004. "An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market," BIS Working Papers 160, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Firat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2019. "Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 609-631, July.
    3. Dennis Essers & Stefaan Ide, 2017. "The IMF and precautionary lending : An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the flexible credit line," Working Paper Research 323, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Christopher A. Hartwell & Paul M. Vaaler, 2023. "The Price of Empire: Unrest Location and Sovereign Risk in Tsarist Russia," Papers 2309.06885, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    5. Alvaro J. Riascos & Juan F. Vargas, 2011. "Violence and growth in Colombia: A review of the quantitative literature," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 15-20, July.
    6. Andrés Zambrano & Hernando Zuleta, 2016. "Revealing the preferences of the FARC," Documentos CEDE 14572, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    7. Björn Falkenhall & Jonas Månsson & Sofia Tano, 2020. "Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 824-850, April.
    8. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    9. Ahmet Kahiloğulları, 2018. "Relationship between credit default swaps, direct foreign investments and Portfolio investments: Time Series Analysis for Turkey," Prizren Social Science Journal, SHIKS, vol. 2(3), pages 50-62, December.

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