IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/ifauwp/2013_025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Adolescent predictors of unemployment and disability pension across the life course – a longitudinal study of selection in 49 321 Swedish men

Author

Listed:
  • Lundin, Andreas

    (Institute of Environmental Medicine (IMM), Karolinska institutet (KI))

  • Hemmingsson, Tomas

    (Institute of Environmental Medicine (IMM), Karolinska institutet (KI))

Abstract

Objective: This study investigated the associations of adolescent cognitive ability, mental status and adaptability to school and work with unemployment from youth to mid-life. It also investigated the associations of youth unemployment with later unemployment and disability pension. Method: We used a cohort of 49 321 Swedish men, with information on cognitive ability, mental status, and school and personality characteristics in late adolescence in 1969. The information was linked to 32 years of annual administrative data to study predictors of unemployment and disability pension. Results: We found a strong and consistent association between cognitive ability and risk of unemployment, which was independent of other individual characteristics. Other notable independent risk factors were psychiatric diagnosis, contact with police or childcare authorities, smoking, risk use of alcohol, not being liked in school, and having been dismissed from or having quit a job due to unfair treatment. Unemployment before age 18 was found to be associated with unemployment across the life course, and also with disability pension, most of which was explained by individual characteristics. Conclusion: Certain individuals are more likely to be unemployed, and to be unem-ployed for more than one period, due to individual characteristics, which include cognitive ability, mental health, and labour-market related behaviour across the life course. However, people who become unemployed in youth have, regardless of their individual characteristics, an increased risk of becoming unemployed again. People who experience youth unemployment are also more likely to receive disability pension.

Suggested Citation

  • Lundin, Andreas & Hemmingsson, Tomas, 2013. "Adolescent predictors of unemployment and disability pension across the life course – a longitudinal study of selection in 49 321 Swedish men," Working Paper Series 2013:25, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2013_025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ifau.se/Upload/pdf/se/2013/wp-2013-25-Adolescent-predictors-of-unemployment-and-disability-pension-across-the-life-course.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stewart, Jennifer M., 2001. "The impact of health status on the duration of unemployment spells and the implications for studies of the impact of unemployment on health status," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 781-796, September.
    2. Stephen Knights & Mark N. Harris & Joanne Loundes, 2002. "Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 284-298, September.
    3. Paul Gregg & Stephen Machin, 2000. "Child Development and Success or Failure in the Youth Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 247-288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Andrew Healey & Martin Knapp & David Farrington, 2004. "Adult labour market implications of antisocial behaviour in childhood and adolescence: findings from a UK longitudinal study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 93-105.
    5. James J. Heckman & Jora Stixrud & Sergio Urzua, 2006. "The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 411-482, July.
    6. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:187:p:247-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    8. Ruhm, Christopher J, 1991. "Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 319-324, March.
    9. Vivian H. Hamilton & Philip Merrigan & Éric Dufresne, 1997. "Down and out: estimating the relationship between mental health and unemployment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 397-406, July.
    10. Burgess, Simon & Propper, Carol & Rees, Hedley & Shearer, Arran, 2003. "The class of 1981: the effects of early career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 291-309, June.
    11. repec:bla:ecorec:v:78:y:2002:i:242:p:284-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bell, David N.F. & Blanchflower, David G., 2011. "Youth Unemployment in Europe and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 5673, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Narendranathan, Wiji & Elias, Peter, 1993. "Influences of Past History on the Incidence of Youth Unemployment: Empirical Findings for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(2), pages 161-185, May.
    14. Case, Anne & Fertig, Angela & Paxson, Christina, 2005. "The lasting impact of childhood health and circumstance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 365-389, March.
    15. Fergusson, David M. & John Horwood, L. & Woodward, Lianne J., 2001. "Unemployment and psychosocial adjustment in young adults: causation or selection?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 305-320, August.
    16. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 626-653, November.
    17. William A. Darity & Arthur H. Goldsmith, 1996. "Social Psychology, Unemployment and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 121-140, Winter.
    18. Lundberg, Olle, 1997. "Childhood conditions, sense of coherence, social class and adult ill health: Exploring their theoretical and empirical relations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 821-831, March.
    19. Erik Lindqvist & Roine Vestman, 2011. "The Labor Market Returns to Cognitive and Noncognitive Ability: Evidence from the Swedish Enlistment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 101-128, January.
    20. Cawley, John & Heckman, James & Vytlacil, Edward, 2001. "Three observations on wages and measured cognitive ability," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 419-442, September.
    21. Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2004. "Scarring effects of the first labour market experience: A sibling based analysis," Working Paper Series 2004:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    22. Thomas A. Mroz & Timothy H. Savage, 2006. "The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    23. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 281-281.
    24. Heckman, James J, 1995. "Lessons from the Bell Curve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 1091-1120, October.
    25. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cutler, David M. & Huang, Wei & Lleras-Muney, Adriana, 2015. "When does education matter? The protective effect of education for cohorts graduating in bad times," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 63-73.
    2. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Ondřej Dvouletý & Martin Lukeš & Mihaela Vancea, 2020. "Individual-level and family background determinants of young adults’ unemployment in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 389-409, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Paul Gregg & Emma Tominey, 2004. "The Wage Scar from Youth Unemployment," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 04/097, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Stefan Eriksson & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2014. "Do Employers Use Unemployment as a Sorting Criterion When Hiring? Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 1014-1039, March.
    4. Möller Joachim & Umkehrer Matthias, 2015. "Are there Long-Term Earnings Scars from Youth Unemployment in Germany?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(4-5), pages 474-498, August.
    5. Mattia Filomena & Isabella Giorgetti & Matteo Picchio, 2022. "Off To A Bad Start: Youth Nonemployment And Labor Market Outcomes Later In Life," Working Papers 466, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    6. Nikolov, Plamen & Jimi, Nusrat & Chang, Jerray, 2020. "The Importance of Cognitive Domains and the Returns to Schooling in South Africa: Evidence from Two Labor Surveys," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The search for success: do the unemployed find stable employment?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 717-735, December.
    8. Millemaci, Emanuele & Sciulli, Dario, 2011. "The causal effect of family difficulties during childhood on adult labour market outcomes," MPRA Paper 29026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Melinda Petre, 2018. "Are Employers Omniscient? Employer Learning About Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 323-360, July.
    10. Dorsett, Richard & Lucchino, Paolo, 2018. "Young people's labour market transitions: The role of early experiences," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 29-46.
    11. David Seim, 2012. "Job displacement and labor market outcomes by skill level," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2012-4, Bank of Estonia.
    12. Gail Pacheco & Jessica Dye, 2013. "Estimating the Cost of Youth Disengagement in New Zealand," Working Papers 2013-04, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    13. Gianni De Fraja & Sara Lemos & James Rockey, 2021. "The Wounds That Do Not Heal: The Lifetime Scar of Youth Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 896-941, October.
    14. Tushar Bharati & Thea Harpley Green, 2021. "Age at school transition and children’s cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 21-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2004. "Scarring effects of the first labour market experience: A sibling based analysis," Working Paper Series 2004:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    16. Seim, David, 2019. "On the incidence and effects of job displacement: Evidence from Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 131-145.
    17. Janet Currie, 2009. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Socioeconomic Status, Poor Health in Childhood, and Human Capital Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 87-122, March.
    18. Luis Beccaria & Roxana Maurizio & Martin Trombetta & Gustavo Vázquez, 2016. "Una evaluación del efecto scarring en Argentina," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 77, August.
    19. Schmillen, Achim & Umkehrer, Matthias, 2013. "The scars of youth : effects of early-career unemployment on future unemployment experience," IAB-Discussion Paper 201306, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    20. Lin, Dajun & Lutter, Randall & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2018. "Cognitive performance and labour market outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 121-135.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Youth unemployment; scarring; mental Health; behaviour; disability pension;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2013_025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ali Ghooloo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifagvse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.