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Long-Run Determinants of Japanese Exports to China and the United States: A Sectoral Analysis

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  • Jacques Jaussaud

    (CREG - Centre de recherche et d'études en gestion - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Serge Rey

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

We show that during the period 1971–2007, Japanese sectoral exports to China and the United States have depended on real exchange rate fluctuations and external demand (gross domestic product of the country of destination). This result holds for six sectors: foods, textile, metal products, chemicals, non-metal products, and machinery and equipment, as well as for both geographical destinations. Generally, the real exchange rate fluctuations and GDP have had the expected effects. In particular, a real appreciation of the yen and a bigger uncertainty has reduced the Japanese exports. But there is an important exception, as we find a price inelasticity of the principal Japanese exports to USA, i.e. Machinery and Equipment, which represent 80 percent of total exports to USA. So, a real depreciation of the yen may constitute an inappropriate policy to favor a process of growth export-led.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2009. "Long-Run Determinants of Japanese Exports to China and the United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Working papers of CATT hal-01880362, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpcatt:hal-01880362
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-pau.hal.science/hal-01880362
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2012. "FDI to Japan and Trade Flows: A Comparison of BRICs, Asian Tigers and Developed Countries," Working Papers hal-01880347, HAL.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    3. Yang, Wen & Liu, Yi-Cheng & Mai, Chao-Cheng, 2017. "How did Japanese exports evolve from 1995 to 2014? A spatial econometric perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 50-58.
    4. Jacques Jaussaud & Julien Martine & Serge Rey, 2012. "Japon : pistes pour l’analyse des conséquences économiques et managériales du Grand Tremblement de Terre du 11 mars 2011," Working papers of CATT hal-01880346, HAL.
    5. Wong Hock Tsen, 2016. "Exchange rate volatilities and disaggregated bilateral exports of Malaysia to the United States: empirical evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 289-314, August.
    6. Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2012. "FDI to Japan and Trade Flows: A Comparison of BRICs, Asian Tigers and Developed Countries," Working papers of CATT hal-01880347, HAL.
    7. Prabhath Jayasinghe & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2014. "Exchange Rate Exposure of Sectoral Returns and Volatilities: Further Evidence From Japanese Industrial Sectors," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 216-236, May.
    8. Pasrun Adam & Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Ambo Wonua Nusantara & Abd Aziz Muthalib, 2017. "A Model of the Dynamic of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Indonesia's Export," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 255-261.
    9. Jacques Jaussaud & Julien Martine & Serge Rey, 2012. "Japon : pistes pour l’analyse des conséquences économiques et managériales du Grand Tremblement de Terre du 11 mars 2011," Working papers of CATT hal-01880346, HAL.
    10. Hakeem Eltalla, 2013. "Devaluation and Output Growth in Palestine: Evidence from a CGE model," European Journal of Business and Economics, Central Bohemia University, vol. 8(4), pages 4221:8-4221, May.
    11. Yixiao Jiang & George K. Zestos & Zachary Timmerman, 2020. "A Vector Error Correction Model for Japanese Real Exports," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 297-311, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Yen; International Trade; Exports; Long-run relationships; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other

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