IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/japwor/v20y2008i4p622-638.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What happens to Japan if China catches a cold?: A causal analysis of Chinese growth and Japanese growth

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Pu
  • Hsiao, Chih-Ying

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study to investigate the directionality of the dependence between the Chinese economy and the Japanese economy. Taking a probabilistic causal approach, we infer the causal dependence among the Japanese economy and the Chinese economy based on observed data. We find evidence that the Chinese growth has both contemporaneous and temporal causal effects on Japanese growth, though the effect is very small. We did not find any evidence that the Japanese growth might have temporal or contemporaneous causal effect on Chinese growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Pu & Hsiao, Chih-Ying, 2008. "What happens to Japan if China catches a cold?: A causal analysis of Chinese growth and Japanese growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 622-638, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:20:y:2008:i:4:p:622-638
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922-1425(07)00024-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    2. Pu Chen & Peter Flaschel, 2005. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage–Price Spiral: Identifying Downward Rigidities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 115-142, February.
    3. Toichiro Asada & Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral: A Baseline Disequilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 139, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Asada, Toichiro & Chen, Pu & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 2006. "Keynesian dynamics and the wage-price spiral: A baseline disequilibrium model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 90-130, March.
    5. Choi, In, 2005. "Subsampling vector autoregressive tests of linear constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 55-89, January.
    6. Peter Spirtes & Clark Glymour & Richard Scheines, 2001. "Causation, Prediction, and Search, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262194406, December.
    7. Hoover, Kevin D., 2005. "Automatic Inference Of The Contemporaneous Causal Order Of A System Of Equations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 69-77, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2012. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Japanese Exports To China And The United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, February.
    2. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
    3. Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2012. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Japanese Exports To China And The United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Datta, Soumya, 2013. "Robustness and Stability of Limit Cycles in a Class of Planar Dynamical Systems," MPRA Paper 50814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nishi, Hiroshi & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2020. "Distribution shocks in a Kaleckian model with hysteresis and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 465-479.
    3. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008. "Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
    4. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The Microfoundations of the Keynesian Wage-Price Spiral," MPRA Paper 42923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    5. Chen, Pu & Chihying, Hsiao, 2007. "Learning Causal Relations in Multivariate Time Series Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-43.
    6. Niehof, Britta & Hayo, Bernd, 2014. "Analysis of Monetary Policy Responses after Financial Market Crises in a Continuous Time New Keynesian Model," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100410, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2008. "Is The Nairu Theory A Monetarist, New Keynesian, Post Keynesian Or A Marxist Theory?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 479-510, July.
    8. Christopher Malikane & Willi Semmler, 2008. "Asset Prices, Output And Monetary Policy In A Small Open Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 666-686, November.
    9. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Monetary growth with disequilibrium: A non-Walrasian baseline model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 512-528.
    10. Christopher Malikane & Tshepo Mokoka, 2014. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3082-3089, September.
    11. Jo, Hoje & Song, Moon H. & Tsang, Albert, 2016. "Corporate social responsibility and stakeholder governance around the world," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 42-69.
    12. Wintoki, M. Babajide & Linck, James S. & Netter, Jeffry M., 2012. "Endogeneity and the dynamics of internal corporate governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 581-606.
    13. Stimel Derek, 2009. "A Statistical Analysis of NFL Quarterback Rating Variables," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-26, May.
    14. Asada, Toichiro & Chen, Pu & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 2006. "Keynesian dynamics and the wage-price spiral: A baseline disequilibrium model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 90-130, March.
    15. Hiroshi Nishi & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Demand and distribution regimes, output hysteresis, and cyclical dynamics in a Kaleckian model," Working Papers PKWP1902, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    16. Choi, In, 2005. "Inconsistency of bootstrap for nonstationary, vector autoregressive processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 39-48, November.
    17. Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira & Philippe Michel, 2013. "Keynes' Wage–Price Dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 44-72, February.
    18. Hiroki Murakami, 2019. "A note on the “unique” business cycle in the Keynesian theory," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 384-404, July.
    19. Jan Toporowski, 2013. "The Elgar Companion to Hyman Minsky," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 175-177, January.
    20. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inferred causality Recovery of the Japanese economy Sino-Japan economic links Time series causal models;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:20:y:2008:i:4:p:622-638. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.