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The Japanese-U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Hegerty, Scott W.

Abstract

While it is often assumed that a country's trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific goods. In the short run, the opposite might even take place, as fixed quantities and rising import prices cause the trade balance to deteriorate. In this paper, we apply cointegration methodology to assess the short- and long-run impact of fluctuations in the yen-dollar real exchange rate on Japan's trade balance with the U.S. for 117 industries. We find that depreciation causes the trade balance to improve in the long-run for about one-third of Japanese industries. Most short-run effects are in the same direction, indicating a quick improvement in these industries' trade balance, rather than a period of deterioration such as a "J-curve."

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "The Japanese-U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-171, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:21:y:2009:i:2:p:161-171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2012. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Japanese Exports To China And The United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, February.
    2. Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Trade in services: The elasticity approach for the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 86596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chi, Junwook, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income changes on maritime freight flows between Japan and the US," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 158-169.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Salman Huseynov & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? New evidence from industry-level analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 83-98, March.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2017. "The Japanese trade balance and asymmetric effects of yen fluctuations: Evidence using nonlinear methods," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 56-63.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2018. "Japan-U.S. trade balance at commodity level and asymmetric effects of Yen-Dollar rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Industry trade and exchange-rate fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. and Chile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 619-626.
    8. Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2012. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Japanese Exports To China And The United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, February.
    9. Walter, Jason & Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2012. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of U.S. bilateral trade with G-7 countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 398-405.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Export diversification and the S-curve effect in a resource-rich state: evidence from Azerbaijan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 135-154, May.
    11. Baak, SaangJoon, 2017. "Is the yen misaligned more during the Abenomics period?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-34.
    12. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Is There a J-curve for Azerbaijan? Evidence from Industry-Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 39370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott, 2013. "Currency depreciations and the U.S.–Italian trade balance: Industry-level estimates," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 215-225.

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