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Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution

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  • Nadeau, Richard
  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
  • Bélanger, Éric

Abstract

In the field of election forecasting, France is a lead case. Recently, however, certain modelers stumbled badly in their efforts to forecast the 2007 presidential election. The difficulty appears due partly to the single-equation format that has constrained past work, and partly to a failure to fully appreciate how key standard independent variables should be measured in the French context. As a potential remedy, we offer a multi-equation model, where the first equation gives strict emphasis to prediction, the second equation to explanation. By various statistical tests, this recursive system of equations manages the forecasting of Fifth Republic presidential elections remarkably well.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadeau, Richard & Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Bélanger, Éric, 2010. "Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 11-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:1:p:11-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Dominique Lafay & François Facchini & Antoine Auberger, 2007. "Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 21(4), pages 145-164.
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    5. Eric Dubois & Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, 2004. "Vote Functions in France and the 2002 Election Forecast," Post-Print hal-00800630, HAL.
    6. Jerome, Bruno & Jerome, Veronique & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 1999. "Polls fail in France: forecasts of the 1997 legislative election1," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 163-174, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Yezheng & Ye, Chang & Sun, Jianshan & Jiang, Yuanchun & Wang, Hai, 2021. "Modeling undecided voters to forecast elections: From bandwagon behavior and the spiral of silence perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 461-483.
    2. Antoine Auberger, 2020. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981- 2017)," Working Papers hal-02501677, HAL.
    3. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, economic conditions and French legislative elections [Vote, popularité, conditions économiques et élections législatives françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480853, HAL.
    4. Dassonneville, Ruth & Hooghe, Marc, 2012. "Election forecasting under opaque conditions: A model for Francophone Belgium, 1981–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 777-788.
    5. Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
    6. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    7. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.

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