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Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume Gaulier

    (Banque de France, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Aude Sztulman

    (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Deniz Ünal

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

Abstract

In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did itshow a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed tradedata for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. Inparticular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather thansemi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded inGVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an originalproduction stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicatorshows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Gaulier & Aude Sztulman & Deniz Ünal, 2019. "Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components," Working Papers hal-02315466, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02315466
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02315466
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Cotterlaz & Guillaume Gaulier & Aude Sztulman & Deniz Ünal, 2024. "Pioneering a new classification: a comprehensive study of healthcare products in global trade," Working Papers 2024-02, CEPII research center.
    2. Yi Wang & Yingming Zhu & Maojun Yu, 2023. "Identification of the most suitable areas for the development of headquarters economy in China: a theoretical framework and empirical case study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 11487-11515, October.
    3. Campbell, Jason, 2024. "The link between import sources and export success: Evidence from China," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2021. "Supply Chain Fragmentation and the Global Trade Elasticity: A New Accounting Framework," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 656-680, December.
    5. Archanun Kohpaiboon & Juthathip Jongwanich, 2021. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Production Sharing in East Asia," Working Papers DP-2021-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    6. Raphaël Chiappini & Cyrielle Gaglio, 2024. "Digital intensity, trade costs and exports' quality upgrading," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 709-747, February.
    7. Jaime de Melo & Anna Twum, 2020. "Supply chain trade in East Africa: Prospects and challenges," Working Papers hal-02493410, HAL.
    8. Evgeny N. SMIRNOV & Sergey A. LUKYANOV, 2019. "Assessment of the transforming impact of global value chains on international trade," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 36-46, July.
    9. Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Roberto Torrini, 2019. "Making room for new competitors. A comparative perspective on Italy’s exports in the euro-area market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 530, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Lema, Rasmus & Pietrobelli, Carlo & Rabellotti, Roberta & Vezzani, Antonio, 2021. "Deepening or delinking? Innovative capacity and global value chain participation in the ICT sectors," MERIT Working Papers 2021-007, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. Escaith, Hubert & Khorana, Sangeeta, 2020. "Mapping the Commonwealth Countries’ Participation in Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 104441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stefan Pahl & Marcel P. Timmer, 2020. "Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1683-1705, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global value chains; parts and components – P&C; trade in volume; electronics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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