IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2017-242.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Aqib Aslam
  • Ms. Emine Boz
  • Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
  • Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
  • Petia Topalova

Abstract

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Aqib Aslam & Ms. Emine Boz & Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Petia Topalova, 2017. "The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery," IMF Working Papers 2017/242, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45352
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Louis Morel, 2015. "Sluggish Exports in Advanced Economies: How Much Is Due to Demand?," Discussion Papers 15-3, Bank of Canada.
    3. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    4. Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2016. "Breaking down world trade elasticities: a panel ECM approach," Working Papers 1614, Banco de España.
    5. Mary Amiti & Tyler Bodine-Smith & Colin J. Hottman & Logan T. Lewis, 2016. "What’s Driving the Recent Slump in U.S. imports?," Liberty Street Economics 20161107, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    7. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    8. Logan T. Lewis & Ryan Monarch, 2016. "Causes of the Global Trade Slowdown," IFDP Notes 2016-11-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    10. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, May.
    11. Timmer, Marcel P. & Los, Bart & Stehrer, Robert & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2016. "An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 Release," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-162, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    12. Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015. "Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 269-267.
    13. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    14. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    15. Abdul Abiad & Prachi Mishra & Petia Topalova, 2014. "How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 213-247, June.
    16. Jarkko Jaaskela & Thomas Mathews, 2015. "Explaining the Slowdown in Global Trade," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-46, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gaulier, Guillaume & Sztulman, Aude & Ünal, Deniz, 2020. "Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 219-236.
    4. William F. Lincoln & Andrew H. McCallum & Michael Siemer, 2019. "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 703-745, December.
    5. Hector Perez-Saiz & Mr. Jemma Dridi & Tunc Gursoy & Mounir Bari, 2019. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2019/175, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2021. "Supply Chain Fragmentation and the Global Trade Elasticity: A New Accounting Framework," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 656-680, December.
    7. Simola, Heli, 2023. "Consumed in China: Rebalancing China's demand and Chinese imports," BOFIT Policy Briefs 5/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Paul Bergin & Ling Feng & Ching-Yi Lin, 2018. "Financial Frictions and Trade Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 480-526, September.
    9. Pahnke, André & Reiff, Annika & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2023. "Entwicklungstendenzen globaler Wertschöpfungsketten aus Sicht mittelständischer Unternehmen," IfM-Materialien 302, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    10. Ahn,Jaebin & Choi,Jaerim & Chung,Sunghoon, 2022. "Labor Market Rigidity at Home and Multinational Corporations’ Flexible Task Reallocation Abroad," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10114, The World Bank.
    11. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. B. Ben Moummad & E. Ezzahid & A. Zoglat, 2023. "The impact of capital goods prices on Africa's economic performance," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 68-84, March.
    13. Sharada Nia Davidson, 2022. "Regional Integration and Decoupling in the Asia Pacific: A Bayesian Panel VAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 773-807, December.
    14. Gregori, Tullio, 2021. "Protectionism and international trade: A long-run view," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-13.
    15. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    2. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    6. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    7. Anna Watson, 2019. "Financial Frictions, the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 19-64, February.
    8. Castellares, Renzo & Salas, Jorge, 2019. "Contractual imperfections and the impact of crises on trade: Evidence from industry-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 33-49.
    9. Simola, Heli, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on global value chains," BOFIT Policy Briefs 2/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Ana Maria Santacreu & Fernando Leibovici, 2016. "International Trade Fluctuations and Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 367, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    12. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2018. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 59-76.
    13. William F. Lincoln & Andrew H. McCallum & Michael Siemer, 2017. "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    15. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Borin, Alessandro & Di Nino, Virginia & Mancini, Michele & Sbracia, Massimo, 2016. "The Cyclicality of the Income Elasticity of Trade," MPRA Paper 73000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    18. Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 225-260.
    19. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "The Great Trade Collapse: An Evaluation Of Competing Stories," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 1053-1089, June.
    20. Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2013. "Towards a theory of trade finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 96-112.
    21. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2017. "Does the Degree of Development Matter in the Impact of Banking Crises on International Trade?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 829-848, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; import growth; demand; import-intensity-adjusted demand; International Trade; Globalization; Trade Policy; Investment; trade cost; import demand model; world goods trade volume growth; trade growth; import share; trade slowdown; Imports; Real imports; Exports; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Trade balance; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.