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Patterns of vertical specialisation in trade: long-run evidence for 91 countries

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  • Stefan Pahl

    (University of Groningen)

  • Marcel P. Timmer

    (University of Groningen)

Abstract

The authors estimate the domestic value-added content in exports of manufacturing goods (VAX-D ratio) for 91 countries over the period from 1970 to 2013. They find a strong decline in the world VAX-D ratio since the mid-1980s mostly accounted for by the substitution of foreign for domestic intermediates. Using a breakpoint detection method, they identify three waves of vertical specialisation in the world economy: 1970–1979, 1986–1995 and 1996–2008. The authors find that most countries (79) initiated a period of vertical specialisation at least once. They find strong evidence that the VAX-D ratio correlates negatively with GDP per capita, and that the negative slope is flattening out at higher levels of income.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Pahl & Marcel P. Timmer, 2019. "Patterns of vertical specialisation in trade: long-run evidence for 91 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(3), pages 459-486, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:155:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10290-019-00352-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-019-00352-3
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    2. Cresti, Lorenzo & Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2023. "Technological interdependencies and employment changes in European industries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 41-57.
    3. Federico Riccio & Giovanni Dosi & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2023. "Smile without a reason why: functional specialisation and income distribution along global value chains," LEM Papers Series 2023/31, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Carlo Piccardi & Lucia Tajoli & Riccardo Vitali, 2024. "Patterns of variability in the structure of global value chains: a network analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1009-1036, August.
    5. Daniel Lind, 2022. "The China Effect on Manufacturing Productivity in the United States and Other High-income Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 42, pages 33-62, Spring.
    6. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj, 2023. "Emphasis on domestic value added in export in the era of global value chain: evidence from Thailand," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(3), pages 703-729, September.
    7. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj, 2022. "Employment effects of joining global production networks: Does domestic value added matter?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1269-1285, August.
    8. Cristiano Antonelli & Christophe Feder, 2021. "Knowledge appropriability and directed technological change: the Schumpeterian creative response in global markets," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 686-700, June.
    9. Koen Frenken & Frank Neffke & Alje van Dam, 2023. "Capabilities, institutions and regional economic development: a proposed synthesis," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(3), pages 405-416.
    10. Federico Riccio & Lorenzo Cresti & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2022. "The labour share along global value chains. Perspectives and evidence from sectoral interdependence," LEM Papers Series 2022/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Eduardo Hernandez-Rodriguez & Ron Boschma & Andrea Morrison & Xianjia Ye, 2023. "Functional upgrading and downgrading in global value chains: Evidence from EU regions using a relatedness/complexity framework," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2316, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jul 2023.
    12. Inga Heiland & Patrik Šváb, 2024. "Estimating Gravity Equations for Trade in Value Added: A Structural Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 11480, CESifo.
    13. Stefan Pahl & Marcel P. Timmer, 2020. "Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1683-1705, July.
    14. Giovanni Dosi & Federico Riccio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2024. "Decarbonisation and Specialisation Downgrading: the double harm of GVC Integration," LEM Papers Series 2024/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vertical specialization; International trade; Economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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