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Responses of African economies to the international economic shocks: an empirical study

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  • Giscard Assoumou Ella

    (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is first to verify the assumption of decoupling or no decoupling of African economic conjunctures and international economic shocks. Our study has tested this assumption in 15 African countries using a SVAR model for the period 1970-2007 and the results suggest that there is no decoupling. In fact 12 countries are exposed to OEDC GDP per capita shocks, six to Federal funds effective rate shocks and five to World price of oil shocks. Furthermore, we investigate the viability of an economic and monetary union creation for the African countries and a unified currency using the comparative of the reaction of any African economy to those international shocks. The impulse response functions of the African economies after an international income, monetary or price shocks tend to be in general more or less similar. According to this indicator, we are optimistic for the possibility and the viability of this project.

Suggested Citation

  • Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2012. "Responses of African economies to the international economic shocks: an empirical study," Working Papers hal-00721633, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00721633
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00721633v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sato, Kiyotaka & Zhang, Zhaoyong & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Identifying shocks in regionally integrated East Asian economies with structural VAR and block exogeneity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1353-1364.
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et dans la zone euro : un modèle VAR structurel," Working Papers hal-00493384, HAL.
    4. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2010. "Processus d’intégration et coordination des politiques macroéconomiques dans le Mercosur : une approche en termes de cycles," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(2), pages 163-204, juin.
    5. Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 2008/100, International Monetary Fund.
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    1. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "The viability of an economic and monetary union in Africa with a unified currency: evidence from the African economies' reactions to the international income, price and monetary shocks," Working Papers hal-00851594, HAL.
    2. Asongu, Simplice A., 2014. "A note on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy: new empirics," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 3(1), pages 1-6.
    3. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41-54, September.

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    Keywords

    African economies; international economic shocks; SVAR model;
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