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La zone euro écartelée : Perspectives 2013-2014 pour l'économie européenne

Author

Listed:
  • Céline Antonin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Après six trimestres de baisse, la zone euro a renoué avec une croissance positive au deuxième trimestre 2013, le PIB progressant de 0,3 %. À l'exception du secteur de la construction, les enquêtes de conjoncture sont mieux orientées, confirmant le retour d'une croissance positive dans les prochains trimestres sur l'ensemble de la zone. La confiance des marchés est revenue, comme en témoigne la poursuite de la baisse des taux souverains en Espagne en Italie. Un mouvement de convergence semble d'ailleurs amorcé puisque dans le même temps les taux sur la dette souveraine allemande et française ont augmenté. Les risques de crise de liquidité dans la zone euro semblent aussi s'atténuer. Le guichet de la BCE reste ouvert et les demandes de refinancement diminuent progressivement. La crainte d'un éclatement de la zone euro étant écartée, les principales menaces qui pourraient contrarier le retour de la croissance dans la zone euro résident dans la poursuite de l'ajustement budgétaire. Pour autant, il est encore prématuré d'affirmer que la zone euro est sortie de la récession. La poursuite, même à un moindre rythme, de la consolidation conjuguée aux pressions à la baisse des salaires en lien avec le niveau élevé du chômage pèsera sur le pouvoir d'achat des ménages dans la plupart des pays. Il ne devrait donc pas y avoir de reprise par la consommation, en dehors du cas particulier de l'Allemagne. La croissance sera insuffisante pour combler l'écart de croissance qui s'est creusé et réduire les divergences qui sont apparues dans la zone euro. Les pressions déflationnistes dans les pays du sud de l'Europe restent fortes, ce qui contraint le pouvoir d'achat et la consommation des ménages, en particulier les agents les plus endettés qui doivent faire face à leurs échéances. Dans ces conditions, la zone euro restera écartelée entre une fraction de pays où la crise laisse peu de traces et une autre durablement affaiblie économiquement, financièrement et socialement.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Danielle Schweisguth, 2013. "La zone euro écartelée : Perspectives 2013-2014 pour l'économie européenne," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01025425, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01025425
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.130.0053
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01025425v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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