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Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility

Author

Listed:
  • Hélène Benveniste

    (Harvard University)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University)

  • Marc Fleurbaey

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Migration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélène Benveniste & Michael Oppenheimer & Marc Fleurbaey, 2022. "Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility," Post-Print halshs-03907684, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03907684
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03907684
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    1. Emily C. Nabong & Aaron Opdyke & Jeffrey P. Walters, 2022. "Identifying leverage points in climate change migration systems through expert mental models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Breanne K. Langlois & Leah Beaulac & Katherine Berry & Oyedolapo Anyanwu & Ryan B. Simpson & Aris Ismanto & Magaly Koch & Erin Coughlan de Perez & Timothy Griffin & Elena N. Naumova, 2023. "Household Flood Severity and Migration Extent in Central Java: Analysis of the Indonesian Family Life Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(9), pages 1-12, May.
    3. Letta,Marco & Montalbano,Pierluigi & Paolantonio,Adriana, 2024. "Climate Immobility Traps : A Household-Level Test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10724, The World Bank.
    4. Zongming Yang & Volodymyr Korobko & Mykola Radchenko & Roman Radchenko, 2022. "Improving Thermoacoustic Low-Temperature Heat Recovery Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Renlu Qiao & Shuo Gao & Xiaochang Liu & Li Xia & Guobin Zhang & Xi Meng & Zhiyu Liu & Mo Wang & Shiqi Zhou & Zhiqiang Wu, 2024. "Understanding the global subnational migration patterns driven by hydrological intrusion exposure," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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