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Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality

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  • Soheil Shayegh

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM))

Abstract

Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

Suggested Citation

  • Soheil Shayegh, 2017. "Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(11), pages 828-832, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:11:d:10.1038_nclimate3420
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3420
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michał Burzyński & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Hendrik SCHEEWEL, 2021. "The Geography of Climate Migration," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 345-381, September.
    2. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    3. Kelsea B. Best & Jonathan M. Gilligan & Hiba Baroud & Amanda R. Carrico & Katharine M. Donato & Brooke A. Ackerly & Bishawjit Mallick, 2021. "Random forest analysis of two household surveys can identify important predictors of migration in Bangladesh," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 77-100, May.
    4. Stefan Jestl & Roman Römisch, 2023. "Migration Drivers in Carbon-intensive Regions in the EU," wiiw Working Papers 236, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Florent MCISAAC & Daniel BASTIDAS, 2019. "Reaching Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions: An Assessment of the Key Transitions in Final Demand and Employment," Working Paper 911644f9-625d-496f-8ecf-8, Agence française de développement.
    6. Hélène Benveniste & Michael Oppenheimer & Marc Fleurbaey, 2022. "Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 634-641, July.
    7. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    8. Caleb Robinson & Bistra Dilkina & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2020. "Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Abdul Aziz & Javed Ahmed Memon & Aleem Ahmed Qader, 2023. "Functional income distribution in Pakistan: Co‐integration and vector error correction model analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1081-1091, January.
    10. Emmerling, Johannes & Shayegh, Soheil & Dasgupta, Shouro, 2020. "Inequality and Growth Impacts from Climate Change—Insights from South Africa," RFF Working Paper Series 20-10, Resources for the Future.

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