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Ranking Transport Projects by their Socioeconomic Value or Financial Interest rate of return?

Author

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  • Alain Bonnafous

    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pablo Jensen

    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LPMCN - Laboratoire de Physique de la Matière Condensée et Nanostructures - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Phys-ENS - Laboratoire de Physique de l'ENS Lyon - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper discusses the choice by the public authority of the most efficient programme of infrastructure investments. More specifically, it studies the optimal ranking of the projects implementations when these projects are partially self-financed by their own revenues such as tolled highways. In this case, the optimal investment programme must be defines under a constraint of annual subsidies. This paper demonstrates that the optimal ranking is not necessarily the ranking of decreasing socio-economic IRR. This counter-intuitive result can be demonstrated by a general approach. Analytical calculations are not useful in the discrete problems because each programme is an ordered subset of projects. Therefore, there is no continuous variation linking the various programmes and the usual tools of optimisation are useless, such as differential calculus. Thus, we adopt here a discrete optimisation analysis based on standard techniques in the physics area, such as Monte Carlo sampling.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Bonnafous & Pablo Jensen, 2005. "Ranking Transport Projects by their Socioeconomic Value or Financial Interest rate of return?," Post-Print halshs-00079721, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00079721
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00079721
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alain Bonnafous, 2002. "Les infrastructures de transport et la logique financière du partenariat public-privé : quelques paradoxes," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 17(1), pages 173-194.
    2. Paul H. Malatesta & Kathryn L. DeWenter, 2001. "State-Owned and Privately Owned Firms: An Empirical Analysis of Profitability, Leverage, and Labor Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 320-334, March.
    3. Alain Bonnafous, 1999. "Infrastructures publiques et financement privé : le paradoxe de la rentabilité financière," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(1), pages 157-166.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonnafous, Alain, 2010. "Programming, optimal pricing and partnership contract for infrastructures in PPPs," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 15-22.
    2. Musso, Enrico & Ferrari, Claudio & Benacchio, Marco, 2006. "Port Investment: Profitability, Economic Impact and Financing," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 171-218, January.
    3. Mandic, Dragomir & Jovanovic, Predrag & Bugarinovic, Mirjana, 2014. "Two-phase model for multi-criteria project ranking: Serbian Railways case study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 88-104.
    4. Bonnafous, Alain, 2012. "The use of PPP's and the profitability rate paradox," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 45-49.
    5. William Roy, 2005. "Évaluation des programmes d'infrastructure : ordre optimal de réalisation sous contrainte financière," Post-Print halshs-00003971, HAL.
    6. Alain Bonnafous & Pablo Jensen & William Roy, 2006. "Le cofinancement usager - contribuable et le partenariat public-privé changent les termes de l'évaluation des programmes d'investissement public," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 15-30.
    7. Valentin Bertsch & Valeria Di Cosmo, 2018. "Are Renewables Profitable in 2030? A Comparison between Wind and Solar across Europe," Working Papers 2018.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Mishra, Sabyasachee & Khasnabis, Snehamay & Dhingra, Sunder Lall, 2013. "A simulation approach for estimating value at risk in transportation infrastructure investment decisions," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 128-138.
    9. Bonnafous, Alain, 2015. "The economic regulation of French highways: Just how private did they become?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 33-41.
    10. Beria, Paolo & Grimaldi, Raffaele, 2014. "Cost Benefit Analysis to assess urban mobility plans. Consumers’ surplus calculation and integration with transport models," MPRA Paper 59590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Alain Bonnafous & Bruno Faivre d'Arcier, 2013. "The conditions of efficiency of a PPP for public finances," Post-Print halshs-00876446, HAL.
    12. Bernard Lapeyre & Emile Quinet, 2017. "A Simple GDP-based Model for Public Investments at Risk," Post-Print hal-01666574, HAL.
    13. Acharya, Bikram & Lee, Jongsu & Moon, HyungBin, 2022. "Preference heterogeneity of local government for implementing ICT infrastructure and services through public-private partnership mechanism," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Lowry, Michael B., 2010. "Using optimization to program projects in the era of communicative rationality," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 94-101, March.
    15. Alain Bonnafous, 2006. "Financing future growth in infrastructure needs," Post-Print halshs-00339710, HAL.

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