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Sunspots and predictable asset returns

Author

Listed:
  • Edouard Challe

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper uses a stylised asset-pricing model to show that sunspots may cause asset returns to be predictable, a widely documented feature of many speculative markets. This result parallels and extends previous works showing that sunspots render asset prices excessively volatile.

Suggested Citation

  • Edouard Challe, 2004. "Sunspots and predictable asset returns," Post-Print halshs-00069375, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00069375
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gale, David, 1973. "Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, February.
    2. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    3. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    5. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    6. Costas Azariadis & Shankha Chakraborty, 1998. "Asset price volatility in a nonconvex general equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(3), pages 649-665.
    7. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
    8. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    9. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2016. "Pricing Assets in an Economy with Two Types of People," NBER Working Papers 22228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Challe, Edouard, 2008. "Endogenous participation risk in speculative markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2148-2164, July.
    3. Challe Edouard & Ragot Xavier, 2011. "Bubbles and Self-Fulfilling Crises," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-38, May.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3lkfg3dhba9dropgrremm2vv3r is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3lkfg3dhba9dropgrremm2vv3r is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Challe Edouard & Ragot Xavier, 2011. "Bubbles and Self-Fulfilling Crises," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-38, May.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12877 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2015. "Global Sunspots and Asset Prices in a Monetary Economy," NBER Working Papers 20831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1qrcn1mmq68brq85u06m9babnl is not listed on IDEAS

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