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Global Sunspots and Asset Prices in a Monetary Economy

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  • Roger E.A. Farmer

Abstract

This paper constructs a simple model in which asset price fluctuations are caused by sunspots. Most existing sunspot models use local linear approximations: instead, I construct global sunspot equilibria. My agents are expected utility maximizers with logarithmic utility functions, there are no fundamental shocks and markets are sequentially complete. Despite the simplicity of these assumptions, I am able to go a considerable way towards explaining features of asset pricing data that have presented an obstacle to previous models that adopted similar assumptions. My model generates volatile persistent swings in asset prices, a substantial term premium for long bonds and bursts of conditional volatility in rates of return.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E.A. Farmer, 2015. "Global Sunspots and Asset Prices in a Monetary Economy," NBER Working Papers 20831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20831
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhigang Feng & Matthew Hoelle, 2017. "Indeterminacy in stochastic overlapping generations models: real effects in the long run," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 559-585, February.
    2. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    3. Hamed Ghiaie, 2018. "Shadow Bank run, Housing and Credit Market: The Story of a Recession," THEMA Working Papers 2018-01, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    4. Hommes, Cars & Vroegop, Joris, 2019. "Contagion between asset markets: A two market heterogeneous agents model with destabilising spillover effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 314-333.
    5. Ghiaie Hamed, 2020. "Shadow Bank Run, Housing and Credit Market: The Story of a Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, June.
    6. Wang, Hanjie & Feil, Jan-Henning & Yu, Xiaohua, 2021. "Disagreement on sunspots and soybeans futures price," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 385-393.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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