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Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents

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  • Diks, Cees
  • Dindo, Pietro

Abstract

In this paper we study the properties of an asset pricing model where boundedly rational agents respond to incoming news about economic fundamentals such as future dividends. Our aim is to characterize the resulting fluctuations of the market price around the time-varying underlying fundamental value. The starting point is an asset market in which agents can choose among two different degrees of information regarding future dividends. At the same time agents also try to learn the growth rate of the dividend generating process. Their interaction leads to prices that deviate perpetually from the fundamental value in the short run but stay close to it in the long run. In particular, prices exhibit time-varying nonlinear mean reversion, with parameters determined by the learning process.

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  • Diks, Cees & Dindo, Pietro, 2008. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1432-1465, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:1432-1465
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    2. Goldbaum, David & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Learning and adaptation's impact on market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 635-653, December.
    3. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    4. Samuel Mayanja & Joseph M. Ntayi & John C. Munene & Waswa Balunywa & James R. K. Kagaari, 2021. "Informational differences and entrepreneurial networking among small and medium enterprises in Uganda," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 11(1), pages 563-577, December.
    5. Cars H. Hommes, 2009. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. De Kamps, Marc & Ladley, Daniel & Simaitis, Aistis, 2014. "Heterogeneous beliefs in over-the-counter markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 50-68.
    7. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Berardi, Michele, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 776-792, May.
    9. Cars Hommes, 2010. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: some evidence from the lab," Post-Print hal-00753041, HAL.
    10. Xue, Yi & Gençay, Ramazan, 2012. "Hierarchical information and the rate of information diffusion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1372-1401.
    11. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
    12. Naimzada, Ahmad & Pireddu, Marina, 2015. "Real and financial interacting markets: A behavioral macro-model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 111-131.
    13. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
    14. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    15. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
    16. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.

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